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Champions League
Referee: S Vincic
Marseille
S S T S S
0–3
Full-time
Liverpool
U U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Liverpool
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
83%
33%
Points per game
2,5
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
5,0
2,3
Scored
4,0
1,5
Conceded
1,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+3,0
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,2
3,2
Scored
1,8
1,8
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,87 xG 1,46
58% Possession 42%
15 Shots 11
4 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
7 Corners 4
3 Offside 3
8 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Marseille Liverpool
24′
ℹ️ Hugo Ekitiké
VAR: Goal cancelled
45′
⚽ D. Szoboszlai 0–1
Half-time 0–1
Benjamin Pavard 🟨
48′
P. Aubameyang 🔁
↦ A. Gouiri
67′
I. Paixao 🔁
↦ H. J. Traore
68′
B. Nadir 🔁
↦ G. Kondogbia
68′
72′
⚽ G. Rulli 1–1
own goal
79′
🔁 C. Jones
↦ F. Wirtz
79′
🔁 C. Gakpo
↦ H. Ekitike
90′
⚽ C. Gakpo 1–2
R. Gravenberch
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Marseille

4-4-2
1 G. Rulli G
28 B. Pavard D
5 L. Balerdi D
32 F. Medina D
62 M. Murillo D
22 T. Weah M
23 P. Hojbjerg M
19 G. Kondogbia M
20 H. J. Traore M
10 M. Greenwood F
9 A. Gouiri F
Bench (12)
12 J. De Lange
40 J. Van Neck
4 C. Egan-Riley
8 A. Gomes
14 I. Paixao
17 M. O'Riley
18 A. Vermeeren
26 B. Nadir
50 D. Bakola
70 A. Doubal
76 T. Mmadi
97 P. Aubameyang

Coach: Habib Beye

Liverpool

4-2-2-2
1 Alisson G
30 J. Frimpong D
2 J. Gomez D
4 V. van Dijk D
6 M. Kerkez D
38 R. Gravenberch M
10 A. Mac Allister M
8 D. Szoboszlai M
7 F. Wirtz M
11 M. Salah F
22 H. Ekitike F
Bench (9)
25 G. Mamardashvili
28 F. Woodman
3 W. Endo
14 F. Chiesa
17 C. Jones
18 C. Gakpo
26 A. Robertson
42 T. Nyoni
73 R. Ngumoha

Coach: Arne Slot

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Vincic · 42 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.