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Championship

Referee: Thomas Kirk

West Brom

T U T S T

1–1

Full-time

Birmingham

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

West Brom Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

0,8

2,3

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 41%

38%

44%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

44%

50%

Both score Ø 47%

50%

44%

Average goals

2,2

2,6

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,86 xG 0,98

43% Possession 57%

13 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match West Brom 17. · Birmingham 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	17	12	4	1	+30	+17.5	40
2	Stoke	17	9	3	5	+13	-0.0	30
3	Middlesbrough	16	8	5	3	+4	+2.7	29
4	Millwall	17	8	4	5	-4	+3.1	28
5	Ipswich	16	7	6	3	+12	+15.1	27
6	Preston	17	7	6	4	+5	-0.8	27
7	Bristol City	17	7	5	5	+5	+1.4	26
8	Derby	17	7	5	5	+1	-6.0	26
9	Wrexham	17	6	7	4	+3	-5.5	25
10	Hull	17	7	4	6	-1	-11.5	25
11	QPR	17	7	4	6	-4	+2.0	25
12	Birmingham	16	7	3	6	+6	+11.7	24
13	Watford	17	6	6	5	+2	+4.0	24
14	Leicester	17	6	6	5	+0	-3.4	24
15	Southampton	16	6	5	5	+4	+9.1	23
16	Charlton	17	6	5	6	-3	-6.6	23
17	West Brom	16	6	3	7	-3	-0.5	21
18	Blackburn	16	6	1	9	-5	+4.2	19
19	Swansea	17	4	5	8	-8	-7.6	17
20	Portsmouth	17	4	5	8	-9	-6.7	17
21	Sheffield United	17	5	1	11	-9	+3.8	16
22	Oxford	17	3	6	8	-6	-4.8	15
23	Norwich	17	2	4	11	-12	-7.6	10
24	Sheffield Weds	17	1	5	11	-21	-13.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	8	6	2	0	+16	+7.2	20
2	Watford	9	5	3	1	+6	+4.4	18
3	Birmingham	8	5	2	1	+12	+11.7	17
4	Preston	9	5	2	2	+4	-0.2	17
5	Middlesbrough	8	5	2	1	+3	-0.6	17
6	Hull	9	5	2	2	+1	-3.8	17
7	Stoke	8	5	1	2	+9	+2.9	16
8	Ipswich	9	4	4	1	+6	+12.1	16
9	Millwall	9	5	1	3	-1	+3.5	16
10	Wrexham	9	4	3	2	+2	+1.7	15
11	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	+4	-0.2	14
12	Charlton	8	4	2	2	+1	-1.8	14
13	Leicester	8	3	4	1	+2	+2.9	13
14	West Brom	7	3	3	1	+2	+3.1	12
15	Derby	9	3	3	3	-1	-1.2	12
16	Southampton	7	3	2	2	+3	+7.0	11
17	QPR	8	3	2	3	-1	+5.0	11
18	Portsmouth	9	3	2	4	-1	+0.8	11
19	Swansea	9	2	3	4	-5	-2.8	9
20	Oxford	8	1	4	3	-4	+0.6	7
21	Sheffield United	8	2	1	5	-4	+3.6	7
22	Blackburn	8	1	1	6	-7	+0.7	4
23	Sheffield Weds	9	0	2	7	-18	-8.8	2
24	Norwich	8	0	1	7	-8	-0.7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	9	6	2	1	+14	+10.3	20
2	Blackburn	8	5	0	3	+2	+3.4	15
3	Stoke	9	4	2	3	+4	-2.9	14
4	Derby	8	4	2	2	+2	-4.9	14
5	QPR	9	4	2	3	-3	-3.0	14
6	Southampton	9	3	3	3	+1	+2.1	12
7	Bristol City	8	3	3	2	+1	+1.5	12
8	Middlesbrough	8	3	3	2	+1	+3.2	12
9	Millwall	8	3	3	2	-3	-0.4	12
10	Ipswich	7	3	2	2	+6	+3.0	11
11	Leicester	9	3	2	4	-2	-6.3	11
12	Preston	8	2	4	2	+1	-0.6	10
13	Wrexham	8	2	4	2	+1	-7.2	10
14	Norwich	9	2	3	4	-4	-6.9	9
15	Charlton	9	2	3	4	-4	-4.8	9
16	Sheffield United	9	3	0	6	-5	+0.2	9
17	West Brom	9	3	0	6	-5	-3.6	9
18	Hull	8	2	2	4	-2	-7.7	8
19	Oxford	9	2	2	5	-2	-5.3	8
20	Swansea	8	2	2	4	-3	-4.7	8
21	Birmingham	8	2	1	5	-6	+0.0	7
22	Sheffield Weds	8	1	3	4	-3	-4.8	6
23	Watford	8	1	3	4	-4	-0.4	6
24	Portsmouth	8	1	3	4	-8	-7.5	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.