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Primeira Liga

Referee: Miguel Nogueira

Arouca

S T T T T

0–4

Full-time

Sp Braga

T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,7

4,2

Scored

1,2

2,5

Conceded

2,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 27%

18%

36%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

64%

Both score Ø 55%

55%

Average goals

3,9

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

2,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

0,06 xG 2,92

16% Possession 84%

3 Shots 18

1 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

0 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 9

4 Yellow cards 0

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 17. · Sp Braga 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	12	11	1	0	+22	+15.1	34
2	Sp Lisbon	12	10	1	1	+25	+21.7	31
3	Benfica	12	8	4	0	+18	+15.4	28
4	Gil Vicente	12	7	2	3	+10	+3.4	23
5	Famalicao	12	5	5	2	+6	+5.5	20
6	Moreirense	12	6	1	5	+1	-6.8	19
7	Guimaraes	12	5	2	5	-3	-3.5	17
8	Sp Braga	11	4	4	3	+8	+6.0	16
9	Alverca	12	4	2	6	-5	-0.6	14
10	Estoril	12	3	4	5	+1	-1.2	13
11	Rio Ave	12	2	7	3	-5	-8.6	13
12	Santa Clara	12	3	3	6	-4	+1.2	12
13	Nacional	12	3	3	6	-5	-5.7	12
14	Estrela	12	2	5	5	-5	-0.8	11
15	Casa Pia	12	2	3	7	-13	-10.2	9
16	Tondela	12	2	3	7	-13	-6.4	9
17	Arouca	11	2	3	6	-17	-14.2	9
18	AVS	12	0	3	9	-21	-10.3	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	6	5	1	0	+10	+7.2	16
2	Sp Lisbon	6	4	1	1	+14	+11.3	13
3	Moreirense	6	4	1	1	+5	-1.1	13
4	Benfica	6	3	3	0	+9	+9.5	12
5	Gil Vicente	6	4	0	2	+4	+2.6	12
6	Guimaraes	6	3	2	1	+3	+0.2	11
7	Sp Braga	6	3	1	2	+6	+6.1	10
8	Famalicao	6	2	2	2	+3	+0.7	8
9	Estoril	6	2	2	2	+1	-0.4	8
10	Santa Clara	6	2	1	3	+0	+3.1	7
11	Alverca	6	2	1	3	-5	+1.8	7
12	Rio Ave	6	1	3	2	-4	-3.1	6
13	Estrela	6	1	2	3	-1	+2.3	5
14	Arouca	6	1	2	3	-6	-6.1	5
15	Nacional	6	1	0	5	-7	-3.2	3
16	Tondela	5	0	2	3	-5	-2.3	2
17	Casa Pia	6	0	2	4	-8	-6.7	2
18	AVS	6	0	2	4	-8	-3.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	6	6	0	0	+12	+7.9	18
2	Sp Lisbon	6	6	0	0	+11	+10.4	18
3	Benfica	6	5	1	0	+9	+5.9	16
4	Famalicao	6	3	3	0	+3	+4.8	12
5	Gil Vicente	6	3	2	1	+6	+0.8	11
6	Nacional	6	2	3	1	+2	-2.5	9
7	Alverca	6	2	1	3	+0	-2.4	7
8	Rio Ave	6	1	4	1	-1	-5.5	7
9	Casa Pia	6	2	1	3	-5	-3.5	7
10	Tondela	7	2	1	4	-8	-4.1	7
11	Sp Braga	5	1	3	1	+2	-0.1	6
12	Moreirense	6	2	0	4	-4	-5.6	6
13	Estrela	6	1	3	2	-4	-3.1	6
14	Guimaraes	6	2	0	4	-6	-3.8	6
15	Estoril	6	1	2	3	+0	-0.8	5
16	Santa Clara	6	1	2	3	-4	-1.9	5
17	Arouca	5	1	1	3	-11	-8.1	4
18	AVS	6	0	1	5	-13	-6.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.