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Primeira Liga

Referee: Ricardo Baixinho

Nacional

T U T T T

3–1

Full-time

Tondela

U T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,5

1,8

Scored

0,8

0,5

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 19%

23%

15%

Points per game

0,9

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

31%

54%

Both score Ø 39%

54%

23%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

0,9

0,5

Conceded

1,4

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,35 xG 3,28

44% Possession 56%

8 Shots 21

4 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 8

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 10

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 17

5 Yellow cards 6

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Nacional 14. · Tondela 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	13	12	1	0	+24	+16.6	37
2	Sp Lisbon	14	11	2	1	+31	+23.0	35
3	Benfica	14	9	5	0	+22	+16.7	32
4	Gil Vicente	14	7	4	3	+10	+3.8	25
5	Famalicao	14	6	5	3	+9	+6.3	23
6	Sp Braga	13	6	4	3	+13	+10.2	22
7	Guimaraes	14	6	3	5	-2	-2.0	21
8	Moreirense	14	6	2	6	-3	-6.7	20
9	Alverca	14	5	2	7	-5	-0.9	17
10	Rio Ave	14	3	7	4	-5	-9.0	16
11	Santa Clara	13	4	3	6	-3	+2.6	15
12	Estoril	14	3	5	6	-3	-3.8	14
13	Estrela	13	3	5	5	-3	+2.0	14
14	Nacional	13	3	3	7	-6	-6.9	12
15	Arouca	14	3	3	8	-22	-18.4	12
16	Casa Pia	14	2	4	8	-14	-12.3	10
17	Tondela	13	2	3	8	-15	-7.9	9
18	AVS	14	0	3	11	-28	-13.3	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	5	1	1	+20	+13.4	16
2	Porto	6	5	1	0	+10	+7.2	16
3	Benfica	7	3	4	0	+9	+10.4	13
4	Moreirense	7	4	1	2	+1	-1.6	13
5	Gil Vicente	6	4	0	2	+4	+2.6	12
6	Guimaraes	7	3	3	1	+3	+0.5	12
7	Famalicao	8	3	2	3	+6	+1.5	11
8	Sp Braga	6	3	1	2	+6	+6.1	10
9	Santa Clara	7	3	1	3	+1	+4.6	10
10	Alverca	7	3	1	3	-4	+3.0	10
11	Estoril	7	2	3	2	+1	-0.9	9
12	Estrela	7	2	2	3	+1	+5.0	8
13	Arouca	8	2	2	4	-9	-7.5	8
14	Rio Ave	7	1	3	3	-5	-4.4	6
15	Nacional	6	1	0	5	-7	-3.2	3
16	Casa Pia	7	0	3	4	-8	-7.3	3
17	Tondela	6	0	2	4	-7	-3.8	2
18	AVS	7	0	2	5	-9	-4.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+14	+9.4	21
2	Benfica	7	6	1	0	+13	+6.3	19
3	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+11	+9.5	19
4	Gil Vicente	8	3	4	1	+6	+1.2	13
5	Sp Braga	7	3	3	1	+7	+4.1	12
6	Famalicao	6	3	3	0	+3	+4.8	12
7	Rio Ave	7	2	4	1	+0	-4.6	10
8	Nacional	7	2	3	2	+1	-3.7	9
9	Guimaraes	7	3	0	4	-5	-2.5	9
10	Alverca	7	2	1	4	-1	-3.9	7
11	Moreirense	7	2	1	4	-4	-5.1	7
12	Casa Pia	7	2	1	4	-6	-5.0	7
13	Tondela	7	2	1	4	-8	-4.1	7
14	Estrela	6	1	3	2	-4	-3.1	6
15	Estoril	7	1	2	4	-4	-2.9	5
16	Santa Clara	6	1	2	3	-4	-1.9	5
17	Arouca	6	1	1	4	-13	-10.9	4
18	AVS	7	0	1	6	-19	-8.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.