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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Malheiro

Estrela

U T U U T

1–4

Full-time

Benfica

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

17%

100%

Points per game

1,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,0

2,7

Conceded

1,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 50%

22%

78%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

39%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

56%

44%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,0

2,1

Conceded

1,5

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,58 xG 3,10

39% Possession 61%

9 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 7

0 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 6

3 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estrela 14. · Benfica 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	18	15	1	2	+26	+21.1	46
2	Benfica	18	14	3	1	+26	+22.4	45
3	Porto	19	14	2	3	+20	+11.9	44
4	Sp Braga	18	11	3	4	+16	+10.9	36
5	Guimaraes	19	11	3	5	+11	+4.3	36
6	Moreirense	19	9	5	5	+2	-0.1	32
7	Farense	19	7	3	9	+0	-6.2	24
8	Arouca	19	6	4	9	+4	-0.8	22
9	Gil Vicente	19	6	4	9	-1	-6.2	22
10	Famalicao	19	5	7	7	-5	-5.1	22
11	Portimonense	19	6	3	10	-17	-11.9	21
12	Boavista	19	5	5	9	-10	-9.8	20
13	Casa Pia	18	5	4	9	-7	-4.1	19
14	Estrela	18	4	6	8	-9	-5.2	18
15	Estoril	18	5	2	11	-2	-9.1	17
16	Rio Ave	18	3	7	8	-9	+2.3	16
17	Vizela	19	2	7	10	-19	-5.8	13
18	Chaves	18	3	3	12	-26	-8.6	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	9	0	0	+17	+12.5	27
2	Guimaraes	10	8	0	2	+13	+8.2	24
3	Benfica	9	7	2	0	+16	+14.4	23
4	Porto	9	7	1	1	+12	+11.9	22
5	Gil Vicente	10	5	4	1	+10	-2.8	19
6	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+9	+11.6	14
7	Farense	10	4	2	4	+3	+0.5	14
8	Moreirense	9	4	2	3	+1	+0.7	14
9	Estoril	9	4	1	4	+9	+1.3	13
10	Rio Ave	9	3	3	3	+0	+4.3	12
11	Famalicao	9	3	3	3	-2	-1.1	12
12	Arouca	10	3	2	5	+1	-0.6	11
13	Portimonense	9	3	2	4	-5	-4.4	11
14	Estrela	9	3	1	5	-4	-2.4	10
15	Boavista	10	2	4	4	-7	-2.5	10
16	Chaves	9	2	2	5	-7	-1.0	8
17	Vizela	10	1	3	6	-11	-0.9	6
18	Casa Pia	9	1	2	6	-8	-2.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+10	+8.0	22
2	Porto	10	7	1	2	+8	+0.0	22
3	Sp Braga	10	7	1	2	+7	-0.7	22
4	Sp Lisbon	9	6	1	2	+9	+8.6	19
5	Moreirense	10	5	3	2	+1	-0.8	18
6	Casa Pia	9	4	2	3	+1	-1.6	14
7	Guimaraes	9	3	3	3	-2	-3.9	12
8	Arouca	9	3	2	4	+3	-0.2	11
9	Boavista	9	3	1	5	-3	-7.3	10
10	Farense	9	3	1	5	-3	-6.7	10
11	Famalicao	10	2	4	4	-3	-4.0	10
12	Portimonense	10	3	1	6	-12	-7.5	10
13	Estrela	9	1	5	3	-5	-2.7	8
14	Vizela	9	1	4	4	-8	-4.9	7
15	Rio Ave	9	0	4	5	-9	-2.0	4
16	Estoril	9	1	1	7	-11	-10.4	4
17	Chaves	9	1	1	7	-19	-7.6	4
18	Gil Vicente	9	1	0	8	-11	-3.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.