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Primeira Liga

Referee: Ricardo Baixinho

Estoril

T S T S U

3–1

Full-time

Maritimo

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Maritimo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

2,0

3,3

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 24%

27%

21%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

33%

58%

Both score Ø 44%

33%

55%

Average goals

2,4

2,8

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

50% Possession 50%

12 Shots 18

3 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 8

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Estoril 15. · Maritimo 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	33	27	3	3	+59	84
2	Porto	33	26	4	3	+48	82
3	Sp Braga	33	24	3	6	+42	75
4	Sp Lisbon	34	23	5	6	+39	74
5	Guimaraes	33	16	5	12	-2	53
6	Arouca	33	14	9	10	-3	51
7	Chaves	33	12	10	11	-2	46
8	Famalicao	34	13	5	16	-8	44
9	Casa Pia	34	11	8	15	-9	41
10	Boavista	33	11	8	14	-14	41
11	Vizela	34	11	7	16	-4	40
12	Rio Ave	34	10	10	14	-7	40
13	Gil Vicente	34	10	7	17	-9	37
14	Portimonense	33	10	4	19	-21	34
15	Estoril	33	9	5	19	-18	32
16	Maritimo	33	7	5	21	-29	26
17	Pacos Ferreira	33	6	5	22	-33	23
18	Santa Clara	33	5	7	21	-29	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	14	1	1	+33	43
2	Porto	16	14	0	2	+30	42
3	Sp Lisbon	17	13	2	2	+30	41
4	Sp Braga	16	12	2	2	+26	38
5	Guimaraes	17	10	3	4	+6	33
6	Arouca	17	10	2	5	+5	32
7	Boavista	17	8	6	3	+2	30
8	Famalicao	17	9	1	7	+2	28
9	Rio Ave	17	8	3	6	+4	27
10	Gil Vicente	17	6	6	5	+1	24
11	Chaves	16	6	5	5	+2	23
12	Casa Pia	17	6	5	6	+1	23
13	Maritimo	17	6	3	8	-2	21
14	Portimonense	16	6	3	7	-5	21
15	Estoril	16	6	2	8	-6	20
16	Vizela	17	5	4	8	-1	19
17	Santa Clara	17	4	5	8	-11	17
18	Pacos Ferreira	17	3	2	12	-20	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	17	13	2	2	+26	41
2	Porto	17	12	4	1	+18	40
3	Sp Braga	17	12	1	4	+16	37
4	Sp Lisbon	17	10	3	4	+9	33
5	Chaves	17	6	5	6	-4	23
6	Vizela	17	6	3	8	-3	21
7	Guimaraes	16	6	2	8	-8	20
8	Arouca	16	4	7	5	-8	19
9	Casa Pia	17	5	3	9	-10	18
10	Famalicao	17	4	4	9	-10	16
11	Gil Vicente	17	4	1	12	-10	13
12	Rio Ave	17	2	7	8	-11	13
13	Portimonense	17	4	1	12	-16	13
14	Estoril	17	3	3	11	-12	12
15	Pacos Ferreira	16	3	3	10	-13	12
16	Boavista	16	3	2	11	-16	11
17	Santa Clara	16	1	2	13	-18	5
18	Maritimo	16	1	2	13	-27	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.