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Bundesliga

Referee: Sören Storks

Hamburg

U S S U T

0–1

Full-time

Leverkusen

S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hamburg Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 39%

26%

52%

Points per game

1,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

52%

57%

Both score Ø 57%

57%

Average goals

2,6

3,2

Scored

1,1

1,9

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,27 xG 1,89

37% Possession 63%

10 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 7

0 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hamburg 11. · Leverkusen 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	24	20	3	1	+65	+45.9	63
2	Dortmund	24	15	7	2	+26	+14.2	52
3	Hoffenheim	24	14	4	6	+18	+2.1	46
4	Stuttgart	24	14	4	6	+16	+7.7	46
5	RB Leipzig	24	13	5	6	+13	+13.2	44
6	Leverkusen	23	12	4	7	+15	+12.5	40
7	Ein Frankfurt	24	9	7	8	-1	-2.5	34
8	Freiburg	24	9	6	9	-5	+3.2	33
9	Augsburg	24	9	4	11	-11	-13.6	31
10	Union Berlin	24	7	7	10	-9	-1.5	28
11	Hamburg	23	6	8	9	-8	-8.9	26
12	M'gladbach	24	6	7	11	-12	-3.6	25
13	FC Koln	24	6	6	12	-8	-6.3	24
14	Mainz	24	5	8	11	-12	-9.2	23
15	St Pauli	24	6	5	13	-17	-16.3	23
16	Werder Bremen	24	5	7	12	-19	-7.6	22
17	Wolfsburg	24	5	5	14	-20	-14.2	20
18	Heidenheim	24	3	5	16	-31	-15.2	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	10	1	1	+36	+23.6	31
2	Dortmund	12	9	2	1	+17	+11.1	29
3	Stuttgart	12	9	2	1	+9	+5.9	29
4	Hoffenheim	12	8	0	4	+13	+5.7	24
5	Freiburg	11	7	3	1	+9	+10.4	24
6	Leverkusen	12	7	2	3	+14	+12.9	23
7	RB Leipzig	12	7	2	3	+10	+8.5	23
8	Augsburg	13	6	3	4	-2	-6.3	21
9	Ein Frankfurt	12	6	2	4	+4	+3.6	20
10	Hamburg	12	5	4	3	+4	-0.6	19
11	Union Berlin	12	4	5	3	+0	+2.7	17
12	Werder Bremen	12	4	4	4	-7	+3.3	16
13	FC Koln	12	4	3	5	+2	+1.3	15
14	St Pauli	11	4	3	4	-5	-3.1	15
15	Mainz	12	3	4	5	-1	+2.9	13
16	M'gladbach	12	3	4	5	-7	-1.4	13
17	Heidenheim	12	2	4	6	-14	-7.9	10
18	Wolfsburg	12	2	3	7	-7	-3.1	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	10	2	0	+29	+22.4	32
2	Dortmund	12	6	5	1	+9	+3.1	23
3	Hoffenheim	12	6	4	2	+5	-3.5	22
4	RB Leipzig	12	6	3	3	+3	+4.7	21
5	Stuttgart	12	5	2	5	+7	+1.8	17
6	Leverkusen	11	5	2	4	+1	-0.4	17
7	Ein Frankfurt	12	3	5	4	-5	-6.1	14
8	M'gladbach	12	3	3	6	-5	-2.3	12
9	Union Berlin	12	3	2	7	-9	-4.2	11
10	Wolfsburg	12	3	2	7	-13	-11.1	11
11	Augsburg	11	3	1	7	-9	-7.3	10
12	Mainz	12	2	4	6	-11	-12.1	10
13	FC Koln	12	2	3	7	-10	-7.6	9
14	Freiburg	13	2	3	8	-14	-7.2	9
15	St Pauli	13	2	2	9	-12	-13.2	8
16	Hamburg	11	1	4	6	-12	-8.3	7
17	Werder Bremen	12	1	3	8	-12	-11.0	6
18	Heidenheim	12	1	1	10	-17	-7.3	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.