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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gustavo Correia

Moreirense

U S T U S

2–2

Full-time

Portimonense

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Portimonense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,8

1,7

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

29%

36%

Both score Ø 36%

36%

Average goals

1,9

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

41% Possession 59%

11 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 1

1 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Moreirense 7. · Portimonense 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	11	3	0	+22	36
2	Porto	14	10	2	2	+19	32
3	Benfica	14	10	2	2	+15	32
4	Pacos Ferreira	15	8	4	3	+10	28
5	Sp Braga	14	9	0	5	+8	27
6	Guimaraes	13	7	2	4	+5	23
7	Moreirense	14	4	5	5	-4	17
8	Maritimo	15	5	2	8	-5	17
9	Santa Clara	14	4	3	7	-5	15
10	Rio Ave	14	3	6	5	-6	15
11	Tondela	14	4	3	7	-10	15
12	Portimonense	14	4	2	8	-7	14
13	Famalicao	14	3	5	6	-9	14
14	Gil Vicente	14	3	4	7	-6	13
15	Nacional	14	3	4	7	-7	13
16	Farense	13	3	3	7	-4	12
17	Belenenses	14	2	6	6	-6	12
18	Boavista	14	1	8	5	-10	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	8	6	1	1	+10	19
2	Benfica	7	6	0	1	+8	18
3	Sp Lisbon	7	5	2	0	+10	17
4	Pacos Ferreira	7	5	1	1	+6	16
5	Sp Braga	6	5	0	1	+6	15
6	Tondela	8	4	2	2	+0	14
7	Moreirense	7	3	3	1	+3	12
8	Farense	7	3	2	2	+3	11
9	Portimonense	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	Nacional	8	2	3	3	-2	9
11	Guimaraes	7	3	0	4	-3	9
12	Rio Ave	6	2	2	2	+0	8
13	Gil Vicente	7	2	2	3	-1	8
14	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	-3	8
15	Belenenses	7	1	3	3	-3	6
16	Famalicao	7	1	3	3	-7	6
17	Santa Clara	7	1	2	4	-5	5
18	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+12	19
2	Guimaraes	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Benfica	7	4	2	1	+7	14
4	Porto	6	4	1	1	+9	13
5	Pacos Ferreira	8	3	3	2	+4	12
6	Sp Braga	8	4	0	4	+2	12
7	Santa Clara	7	3	1	3	+0	10
8	Maritimo	8	3	0	5	-2	9
9	Famalicao	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	Rio Ave	8	1	4	3	-6	7
11	Belenenses	7	1	3	3	-3	6
12	Boavista	8	0	6	2	-4	6
13	Gil Vicente	7	1	2	4	-5	5
14	Moreirense	7	1	2	4	-7	5
15	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-5	4
16	Portimonense	7	1	0	6	-8	3
17	Farense	6	0	1	5	-7	1
18	Tondela	6	0	1	5	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.