Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Numancia
Cadiz
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Zaragoza
|
33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | +15 | 58 |
| 2 |
Cadiz
|
32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | +12 | 57 |
| 3 |
Almeria
|
33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | +19 | 53 |
| 4 |
Huesca
|
32 | 16 | 5 | 11 | +9 | 53 |
| 5 |
Girona
|
33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | +5 | 49 |
| 6 |
Vallecano
|
33 | 10 | 17 | 6 | +8 | 47 |
| 7 |
Elche
|
33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | +7 | 47 |
| 8 |
Mirandes
|
32 | 10 | 15 | 7 | +0 | 45 |
| 9 |
Alcorcon
|
32 | 10 | 14 | 8 | +3 | 44 |
| 10 |
Ponferradina
|
33 | 10 | 14 | 9 | +3 | 44 |
| 11 |
Sp Gijon
|
32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | +2 | 42 |
| 12 |
Fuenlabrada
|
33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | -1 | 42 |
| 13 |
Las Palmas
|
33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | -4 | 42 |
| 14 |
Tenerife
|
33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | -1 | 40 |
| 15 |
Malaga
|
33 | 8 | 15 | 10 | -2 | 39 |
| 16 |
Numancia
|
32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 38 |
| 17 |
Albacete
|
33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | -13 | 38 |
| 18 |
Oviedo
|
33 | 8 | 13 | 12 | -6 | 37 |
| 19 |
Lugo
|
33 | 8 | 13 | 12 | -13 | 37 |
| 20 |
La Coruna
|
33 | 8 | 13 | 12 | -18 | 37 |
| 21 | Extremadura UD | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | -14 | 32 |
| 22 |
Santander
|
33 | 4 | 17 | 12 | -10 | 29 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Mirandes
Numancia
Numancia
Santander
Elche
Numancia
Albacete
Numancia
Numancia
Las Palmas
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.