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Premiership

Referee: J Beaton

Hibernian

T T S T U

3–2

Full-time

Hearts

U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hibernian Hearts

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

1,8

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premiership · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,4

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

56%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,6

2,0

Conceded

1,1

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

0,88 xG 1,91

34% Possession 66%

12 Shots 16

7 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 8

0 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hibernian 5. · Hearts 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	18	12	5	1	+22	+6.4	41
2	Celtic	17	11	2	4	+15	+6.6	35
3	Motherwell	18	7	9	2	+11	+8.7	30
4	Rangers	17	7	8	2	+9	+0.4	29
5	Hibernian	18	6	7	5	+8	+0.9	25
6	Aberdeen	17	7	3	7	-1	-5.3	24
7	Falkirk	18	6	6	6	-6	-0.6	24
8	Dundee United	18	4	9	5	-3	-3.9	21
9	St Mirren	16	4	5	7	-7	+2.1	17
10	Dundee	18	3	4	11	-17	-8.6	13
11	Kilmarnock	18	2	6	10	-16	-5.0	12
12	Livingston	17	1	6	10	-15	-1.8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Celtic	9	7	1	1	+15	+7.0	22
2	Hearts	9	6	3	0	+13	+3.1	21
3	Motherwell	9	5	3	1	+9	+7.0	18
4	Rangers	8	3	4	1	+2	+2.6	13
5	Dundee United	10	3	4	3	-1	-1.7	13
6	Hibernian	8	3	3	2	+7	+3.7	12
7	Aberdeen	9	3	3	3	+2	-3.9	12
8	St Mirren	9	3	3	3	-1	+3.3	12
9	Falkirk	9	2	5	2	+0	+1.1	11
10	Dundee	8	3	1	4	-3	-2.9	10
11	Kilmarnock	10	1	3	6	-9	-1.1	6
12	Livingston	7	1	2	4	-2	+2.0	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hearts	9	6	2	1	+9	+3.3	20
2	Rangers	9	4	4	1	+7	-2.2	16
3	Hibernian	10	3	4	3	+1	-2.8	13
4	Celtic	8	4	1	3	+0	-0.5	13
5	Falkirk	9	4	1	4	-6	-1.6	13
6	Motherwell	9	2	6	1	+2	+1.6	12
7	Aberdeen	8	4	0	4	-3	-1.4	12
8	Dundee United	8	1	5	2	-2	-2.1	8
9	Kilmarnock	8	1	3	4	-7	-3.8	6
10	St Mirren	7	1	2	4	-6	-1.2	5
11	Livingston	10	0	4	6	-13	-3.8	4
12	Dundee	10	0	3	7	-14	-5.7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.