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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Macedo

Rio Ave

S T U U U

1–0

Full-time

Casa Pia

S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,7

3,8

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,0

2,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 20%

15%

25%

Points per game

0,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

30%

45%

Both score Ø 50%

55%

45%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,52 xG 0,20

67% Possession 33%

8 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 20

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rio Ave 16. · Casa Pia 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	20	16	3	1	+32	+26.2	51
2	Sp Lisbon	19	16	1	2	+34	+25.2	49
3	Porto	20	14	3	3	+20	+13.2	45
4	Sp Braga	20	12	4	4	+17	+13.9	40
5	Guimaraes	20	12	3	5	+12	+5.6	39
6	Moreirense	21	10	5	6	+2	+0.5	35
7	Farense	21	7	5	9	+0	-4.8	26
8	Arouca	20	7	4	9	+5	-0.8	25
9	Boavista	21	6	6	9	-9	-10.6	24
10	Famalicao	20	5	8	7	-5	-5.6	23
11	Gil Vicente	20	6	4	10	-4	-7.5	22
12	Estoril	21	6	3	12	-2	-8.5	21
13	Estrela	21	5	6	10	-10	-6.3	21
14	Portimonense	21	6	3	12	-21	-13.0	21
15	Casa Pia	20	5	5	10	-15	-8.0	20
16	Rio Ave	20	3	9	8	-9	+0.7	18
17	Chaves	21	3	5	13	-27	-13.0	14
18	Vizela	20	2	7	11	-20	-7.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	10	0	0	+25	+16.6	30
2	Benfica	10	8	2	0	+19	+15.7	26
3	Guimaraes	10	8	0	2	+13	+8.2	24
4	Porto	10	7	2	1	+12	+13.2	23
5	Gil Vicente	10	5	4	1	+10	-2.8	19
6	Sp Braga	10	5	3	2	+10	+14.6	18
7	Moreirense	10	5	2	3	+2	+1.5	17
8	Estoril	10	5	1	4	+10	+0.9	16
9	Farense	11	4	3	4	+3	+1.0	15
10	Rio Ave	10	3	4	3	+0	+4.0	13
11	Estrela	11	4	1	6	-4	-3.9	13
12	Boavista	11	3	4	4	-6	-3.1	13
13	Famalicao	9	3	3	3	-2	-1.1	12
14	Arouca	10	3	2	5	+1	-0.6	11
15	Portimonense	10	3	2	5	-6	-4.5	11
16	Chaves	10	2	3	5	-7	-1.8	9
17	Casa Pia	10	1	3	6	-8	-2.4	6
18	Vizela	11	1	3	7	-12	-2.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+13	+10.5	25
2	Porto	10	7	1	2	+8	+0.0	22
3	Sp Braga	10	7	1	2	+7	-0.7	22
4	Sp Lisbon	9	6	1	2	+9	+8.6	19
5	Moreirense	11	5	3	3	+0	-1.1	18
6	Guimaraes	10	4	3	3	-1	-2.5	15
7	Arouca	10	4	2	4	+4	-0.2	14
8	Casa Pia	10	4	2	4	-7	-5.6	14
9	Boavista	10	3	2	5	-3	-7.5	11
10	Farense	10	3	2	5	-3	-5.9	11
11	Famalicao	11	2	5	4	-3	-4.5	11
12	Portimonense	11	3	1	7	-15	-8.5	10
13	Estrela	10	1	5	4	-6	-2.4	8
14	Vizela	9	1	4	4	-8	-4.9	7
15	Rio Ave	10	0	5	5	-9	-3.3	5
16	Estoril	11	1	2	8	-12	-9.5	5
17	Chaves	11	1	2	8	-20	-11.2	5
18	Gil Vicente	10	1	0	9	-14	-4.7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.