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Ekstraklasa

Referee: B Frankowski

Warta Poznan

U T T U T

2–1

Full-time

Rakow

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Warta Poznan Rakow

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

1,0

Conceded

2,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 19/18 matches

Win Ø 36%

21%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

37%

56%

Both score Ø 52%

42%

61%

Average goals

2,4

3,2

Scored

1,1

1,9

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

0,40 xG 2,81

30% Possession 70%

5 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 9

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 11

5 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Warta Poznan 15. · Rakow 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	19	12	5	2	+16	+2.2	41
2	Jagiellonia	19	11	5	3	+18	+6.6	38
3	Lech Poznan	20	10	6	4	+9	-1.7	36
4	Legia	20	10	5	5	+7	+7.4	35
5	Rakow	18	9	5	4	+13	+11.2	32
6	Pogon Szczecin	19	9	3	7	+11	+10.4	30
7	Gornik Zabrze	20	8	5	7	+3	-2.1	29
8	Stal Mielec	19	7	4	8	-3	-7.2	25
9	Zaglebie	20	7	4	9	-11	+3.0	25
10	Piast Gliwice	19	4	12	3	+2	+10.7	24
11	Cracovia	20	5	9	6	+0	-2.9	24
12	Radomiak Radom	20	6	6	8	-5	+1.5	24
13	Widzew Lodz	19	6	4	9	-5	-2.8	22
14	Puszcza	19	5	5	9	-11	-11.7	20
15	Warta Poznan	19	4	7	8	-6	-4.0	19
16	Korona Kielce	18	3	9	6	-2	-4.3	18
17	Ruch Chorzow	20	1	10	9	-13	-7.9	13
18	LKS Lodz	18	2	4	12	-23	-8.5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	9	8	1	0	+19	+7.7	25
2	Rakow	10	7	3	0	+17	+11.0	24
3	Lech Poznan	11	7	2	2	+12	+0.7	23
4	Legia	10	6	2	2	+9	+7.6	20
5	Slask Wroclaw	9	5	3	1	+8	+4.3	18
6	Stal Mielec	9	5	2	2	+6	-0.2	17
7	Gornik Zabrze	9	5	2	2	+3	-1.8	17
8	Puszcza	10	4	4	2	+0	-3.4	16
9	Zaglebie	10	4	3	3	-1	+2.7	15
10	Widzew Lodz	9	5	0	4	-1	+4.5	15
11	Pogon Szczecin	10	4	2	4	+3	+11.8	14
12	Cracovia	11	3	5	3	+2	+0.4	14
13	Piast Gliwice	9	3	4	2	+2	+7.9	13
14	Radomiak Radom	10	2	5	3	+1	+2.9	11
15	Korona Kielce	8	2	4	2	+2	+3.9	10
16	LKS Lodz	10	2	4	4	-9	-7.5	10
17	Ruch Chorzow	10	1	5	4	-5	-2.3	8
18	Warta Poznan	9	1	3	5	-5	-0.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	10	7	2	1	+8	-2.1	23
2	Pogon Szczecin	9	5	1	3	+8	-1.4	16
3	Legia	10	4	3	3	-2	-0.2	15
4	Jagiellonia	10	3	4	3	-1	-1.1	13
5	Warta Poznan	10	3	4	3	-1	-3.2	13
6	Lech Poznan	9	3	4	2	-3	-2.5	13
7	Radomiak Radom	10	4	1	5	-6	-1.4	13
8	Gornik Zabrze	11	3	3	5	+0	-0.3	12
9	Piast Gliwice	10	1	8	1	+0	+2.8	11
10	Cracovia	9	2	4	3	-2	-3.4	10
11	Zaglebie	10	3	1	6	-10	+0.4	10
12	Rakow	8	2	2	4	-4	+0.2	8
13	Korona Kielce	10	1	5	4	-4	-8.2	8
14	Stal Mielec	10	2	2	6	-9	-7.0	8
15	Widzew Lodz	10	1	4	5	-4	-7.3	7
16	Ruch Chorzow	10	0	5	5	-8	-5.6	5
17	Puszcza	9	1	1	7	-11	-8.3	4
18	LKS Lodz	8	0	0	8	-14	-1.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.