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Champions League
Referee: F Zwayer
Liverpool
U T S U S
2–1
Full-time
Lille
S U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Lille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
3,0
1,7
Scored
2,3
1,0
Conceded
0,7
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/10 matches
Win Ø 80%
100%
60%
Points per game
3,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 44%
17%
70%
Average goals
2,3
2,7
Scored
2,2
1,6
Conceded
0,2
1,1
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,46 xG 0,49
56% Possession 44%
13 Shots 4
7 Shots on target 1
0 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 5
3 Corners 3
1 Offside 3
12 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1

Match report

Liverpool Lille
1–0 Mohamed Salah
C. Jones
34′
35′
🟨 Aïssa Mandi
Half-time 1–0
A. Mac Allister 🔁
↦ R. Gravenberch
46′
H. Elliott 🔁
↦ C. Jones
46′
59′
🟨 Aïssa Mandi
59′
🟥 Aïssa Mandi
62′
J. David 1–1
W. Endō 🔁
↦ D. Szoboszlai
63′
63′
🔁 T. Meunier
↦ M. Bakker
63′
🔁 O. Sahraoui
↦ R. Cabella
2–1 H. Elliott
67′
74′
🔁 Ismaily
↦ G. Gudmundsson
74′
🔁 A. Bouaddi
↦ N. Mukau
F. Chiesa 🔁
↦ L. Díaz
75′
T. Alexander-Arnold 🔁
↦ C. Bradley
86′
88′
🟨 Benjamin André
Alexis Mac Allister 🟨
92′
Harvey Elliott 🟨
94′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Liverpool

4-3-3
1 Alisson Becker G
84 C. Bradley D
78 J. Quansah D
4 V. van Dijk D
21 K. Tsimikas D
8 D. Szoboszlai M
38 R. Gravenberch M
17 C. Jones M
11 Mohamed Salah F
9 D. Núñez F
7 L. Díaz F
Bench (12)
10 A. Mac Allister
19 H. Elliott
3 W. Endō
14 F. Chiesa
66 T. Alexander-Arnold
18 C. Gakpo
5 I. Konaté
80 T. Morton
26 A. Robertson
76 J. Danns
56 V. Jaroš
62 C. Kelleher

Coach: A. Slot

Lille

4-2-3-1
30 L. Chevalier G
2 A. Mandi D
18 B. Diakité D
4 Alexsandro Ribeiro D
5 G. Gudmundsson D
17 N. Mukau M
21 B. André M
20 M. Bakker M
7 H. Haraldsson M
10 R. Cabella M
9 J. David F
Bench (10)
12 T. Meunier
11 O. Sahraoui
31 Ismaily
32 A. Bouaddi
35 I. Cossier
8 A. Gomes
1 V. Mannone
16 M. Caillard
27 M. Bayo
29 E. Mbappé

Coach: B. Génésio

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

F Zwayer · 152 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.