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Ligue 1

Referee: B Dechepy

Nice

U T T T S

1–2

Full-time

Nantes

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Nantes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 37%

46%

27%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

27%

42%

Both score Ø 39%

35%

42%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

0,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,31 xG 1,69

57% Possession 43%

12 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 3

0 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nice 5. · Nantes 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	26	17	8	1	+39	+20.6	59
2	Brest	27	14	8	5	+17	+8.6	50
3	Monaco	27	14	7	6	+14	+7.6	49
4	Lille	27	12	10	5	+15	+13.7	46
5	Nice	26	12	7	7	+7	+10.0	43
6	Lens	27	12	6	9	+7	+1.5	42
7	Marseille	26	10	9	7	+12	+18.0	39
8	Rennes	26	10	9	7	+9	+8.4	39
9	Reims	27	11	6	10	-1	+5.5	39
10	Lyon	27	10	5	12	-10	-5.8	35
11	Toulouse	26	7	8	11	-7	-8.1	29
12	Strasbourg	26	7	8	11	-11	-4.4	29
13	Le Havre	26	6	9	11	-7	-11.6	27
14	Montpellier	26	6	9	11	-9	+0.5	27
15	Lorient	27	6	8	13	-15	-14.2	26
16	Nantes	26	7	4	15	-17	-12.1	25
17	Metz	27	6	5	16	-19	-17.3	23
18	Clermont	26	4	8	14	-24	-20.8	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lille	13	9	3	1	+18	+17.5	30
2	Marseille	13	8	5	0	+17	+15.8	29
3	Paris SG	13	8	4	1	+19	+14.3	28
4	Brest	13	7	5	1	+12	+11.6	26
5	Nice	13	7	4	2	+8	+8.3	25
6	Rennes	14	7	3	4	+10	+11.3	24
7	Lens	13	7	2	4	+6	+5.8	23
8	Monaco	13	6	3	4	+7	+8.0	21
9	Reims	13	6	2	5	+0	+6.1	20
10	Le Havre	12	5	2	5	+2	+3.0	17
11	Lyon	14	4	4	6	-7	+0.7	16
12	Strasbourg	13	4	3	6	-4	-0.3	15
13	Toulouse	13	3	5	5	+0	+4.1	14
14	Montpellier	14	2	8	4	-3	+7.3	14
15	Lorient	14	3	4	7	-5	-5.2	13
16	Nantes	14	3	3	8	-7	-4.3	12
17	Clermont	13	2	4	7	-12	-7.4	10
18	Metz	13	2	3	8	-7	-1.9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	9	4	0	+20	+6.3	31
2	Monaco	14	8	4	2	+7	-0.4	28
3	Brest	14	7	3	4	+5	-3.0	24
4	Lens	14	5	4	5	+1	-4.3	19
5	Reims	14	5	4	5	-1	-0.6	19
6	Lyon	13	6	1	6	-3	-6.5	19
7	Nice	13	5	3	5	-1	+1.7	18
8	Lille	14	3	7	4	-3	-3.8	16
9	Rennes	12	3	6	3	-1	-2.9	15
10	Toulouse	13	4	3	6	-7	-12.2	15
11	Strasbourg	13	3	5	5	-7	-4.2	14
12	Metz	14	4	2	8	-12	-15.4	14
13	Montpellier	12	4	1	7	-6	-6.9	13
14	Lorient	13	3	4	6	-10	-9.0	13
15	Nantes	12	4	1	7	-10	-7.8	13
16	Marseille	13	2	4	7	-5	+2.2	10
17	Le Havre	14	1	7	6	-9	-14.6	10
18	Clermont	13	2	4	7	-12	-13.4	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.