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Serie A

Referee: M Guida

Milan

S U T T S

1–2

Full-time

Cagliari

T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Cagliari

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 41%

54%

27%

Points per game

1,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

43%

49%

Both score Ø 48%

46%

49%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,74 xG 2,78

48% Possession 52%

16 Shots 25

3 Shots on target 10

2 Blocked shots 7

9 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

3 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 4. · Cagliari 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	38	27	6	5	+54	+37.4	87
2	Napoli	38	23	7	8	+22	+12.9	76
3	Roma	37	22	4	11	+26	+13.2	70
4	Milan	37	20	10	7	+19	+17.4	70
5	Como	37	19	11	7	+33	+26.6	68
6	Juventus	37	19	11	7	+27	+34.8	68
7	Atalanta	38	15	14	9	+15	+15.3	59
8	Bologna	38	16	8	14	+3	-1.3	56
9	Lazio	38	14	12	12	+1	-5.1	54
10	Udinese	38	14	8	16	-3	-10.6	50
11	Sassuolo	38	14	7	17	-4	-13.3	49
12	Parma	38	11	12	15	-18	-24.8	45
13	Torino	37	12	8	17	-19	-7.1	44
14	Fiorentina	38	9	15	14	-9	+2.8	42
15	Genoa	37	10	11	16	-9	-2.5	41
16	Cagliari	37	10	10	17	-14	-15.9	40
17	Lecce	37	9	8	20	-23	-27.3	35
18	Cremonese	37	8	10	19	-22	-21.0	34
19	Verona	37	3	12	22	-34	-12.2	21
20	Pisa	38	2	12	24	-45	-19.6	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	19	14	3	2	+34	+27.5	45
2	Napoli	19	13	4	2	+15	+3.8	43
3	Roma	19	13	3	3	+23	+12.7	42
4	Juventus	19	10	7	2	+19	+23.7	37
5	Como	19	10	6	3	+20	+22.3	36
6	Atalanta	19	9	6	4	+10	+16.6	33
7	Milan	18	9	5	4	+5	+11.4	32
8	Lazio	19	8	6	5	+2	+0.1	30
9	Sassuolo	19	9	2	8	-1	-5.8	29
10	Torino	18	8	3	7	-2	-2.5	27
11	Cagliari	19	7	4	8	-1	-5.7	25
12	Udinese	19	6	5	8	-3	-1.1	23
13	Genoa	19	6	4	9	-4	+2.3	22
14	Bologna	19	6	4	9	-4	+1.6	22
15	Fiorentina	19	4	9	6	+0	+9.9	21
16	Parma	19	5	6	8	-9	-11.0	21
17	Lecce	18	4	5	9	-12	-7.1	17
18	Cremonese	18	3	7	8	-8	-2.6	16
19	Pisa	19	2	4	13	-17	-5.0	10
20	Verona	18	1	5	12	-14	-2.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	19	13	3	3	+20	+10.0	42
2	Milan	19	11	5	3	+14	+6.0	38
3	Bologna	19	10	4	5	+7	-2.9	34
4	Napoli	19	10	3	6	+7	+9.1	33
5	Como	18	9	5	4	+13	+4.3	32
6	Juventus	18	9	4	5	+8	+11.1	31
7	Roma	18	9	1	8	+3	+0.5	28
8	Udinese	19	8	3	8	+0	-9.5	27
9	Atalanta	19	6	8	5	+5	-1.4	26
10	Lazio	19	6	6	7	-1	-5.1	24
11	Parma	19	6	6	7	-9	-13.8	24
12	Fiorentina	19	5	6	8	-9	-7.1	21
13	Sassuolo	19	5	5	9	-3	-7.4	20
14	Genoa	18	4	7	7	-5	-4.8	19
15	Lecce	19	5	3	11	-11	-20.2	18
16	Cremonese	19	5	3	11	-14	-18.4	18
17	Torino	19	4	5	10	-17	-4.6	17
18	Cagliari	18	3	6	9	-13	-10.2	15
19	Verona	19	2	7	10	-20	-9.9	13
20	Pisa	19	0	8	11	-28	-14.6	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.