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Ligue 1

Referee: J Brisard

St Etienne

T S T S T

0–2

Full-time

Marseille

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Etienne Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,7

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 47%

31%

62%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

46%

77%

Both score Ø 46%

23%

69%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

2,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,16 xG 2,51

31% Possession 69%

3 Shots 21

2 Shots on target 10

1 Blocked shots 7

8 Goalkeeper saves 2

0 Corners 9

13 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match St Etienne 16. · Marseille 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	10	4	0	+26	+25.7	34
2	Monaco	14	9	2	3	+12	+16.3	29
3	Marseille	13	8	2	3	+12	-1.9	26
4	Lille	14	7	5	2	+10	+6.8	26
5	Lyon	14	7	4	3	+9	+7.2	25
6	Nice	14	6	5	3	+9	+8.5	23
7	Lens	14	6	5	3	+5	+6.4	23
8	Auxerre	14	6	2	6	+0	-7.2	20
9	Reims	14	5	4	5	+2	-4.4	19
10	Toulouse	14	5	3	6	-1	+7.3	18
11	Brest	14	5	1	8	-6	-9.6	16
12	Rennes	14	4	2	8	-2	+0.3	14
13	Nantes	14	3	5	6	-4	-5.2	14
14	Strasbourg	14	3	5	6	-5	-7.5	14
15	Angers	14	3	4	7	-10	-6.5	13
16	St Etienne	13	4	1	8	-19	-12.0	13
17	Le Havre	14	4	0	10	-15	-10.9	12
18	Montpellier	14	2	2	10	-23	-13.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	6	1	0	+16	+12.1	19
2	Monaco	8	5	2	1	+6	+10.4	17
3	Auxerre	7	5	1	1	+7	+1.4	16
4	Nice	7	4	3	0	+11	+8.2	15
5	Lille	7	4	2	1	+4	+1.6	14
6	Rennes	7	4	1	2	+9	+5.4	13
7	Brest	7	4	1	2	+5	+0.5	13
8	Lyon	7	4	1	2	+4	+4.3	13
9	Strasbourg	7	3	3	1	+3	-0.4	12
10	St Etienne	6	4	0	2	+2	+2.9	12
11	Toulouse	7	3	2	2	+2	+5.6	11
12	Lens	7	3	2	2	+1	+6.1	11
13	Nantes	7	2	2	3	-1	+2.8	8
14	Reims	7	2	2	3	-2	-2.6	8
15	Marseille	6	2	2	2	-2	-0.3	8
16	Montpellier	7	2	2	3	-7	-2.3	8
17	Le Havre	7	2	0	5	-11	-7.7	6
18	Angers	7	1	1	5	-9	-5.6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	7	6	0	1	+14	-1.6	18
2	Paris SG	7	4	3	0	+10	+13.7	15
3	Monaco	6	4	0	2	+6	+5.9	12
4	Lille	7	3	3	1	+6	+5.2	12
5	Lyon	7	3	3	1	+5	+2.9	12
6	Lens	7	3	3	1	+4	+0.4	12
7	Reims	7	3	2	2	+4	-1.8	11
8	Angers	7	2	3	2	-1	-1.0	9
9	Nice	7	2	2	3	-2	+0.3	8
10	Toulouse	7	2	1	4	-3	+1.7	7
11	Nantes	7	1	3	3	-3	-7.9	6
12	Le Havre	7	2	0	5	-4	-3.2	6
13	Auxerre	7	1	1	5	-7	-8.6	4
14	Brest	7	1	0	6	-11	-10.1	3
15	Strasbourg	7	0	2	5	-8	-7.1	2
16	Rennes	7	0	1	6	-11	-5.1	1
17	St Etienne	7	0	1	6	-21	-14.9	1
18	Montpellier	7	0	0	7	-16	-10.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.