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Bundesliga

Referee: T Gerach

Wolfsburg

U S S S S

4–3

Full-time

Mainz

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Wolfsburg Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

2,3

1,5

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 42%

42%

Points per game

1,5

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

2,1

1,7

Conceded

1,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,23 xG 2,34

44% Possession 56%

10 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Wolfsburg 10. · Mainz 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	10	3	0	+31	+22.4	33
2	Ein Frankfurt	13	8	3	2	+15	+5.3	27
3	Leverkusen	13	7	5	1	+10	+10.5	26
4	RB Leipzig	13	7	3	3	+7	-0.9	24
5	Dortmund	13	6	3	4	+4	+3.3	21
6	Stuttgart	13	5	5	3	+3	+4.6	20
7	Freiburg	12	6	2	4	+0	+5.1	20
8	Mainz	12	5	4	3	+6	+0.4	19
9	Werder Bremen	13	5	4	4	-4	-0.8	19
10	Wolfsburg	12	5	3	4	+6	-0.8	18
11	M'gladbach	13	5	3	5	+1	+1.8	18
12	Union Berlin	13	4	4	5	-2	-4.2	16
13	Augsburg	13	4	4	5	-9	-4.6	16
14	Hoffenheim	12	3	3	6	-7	-9.8	12
15	St Pauli	13	3	2	8	-6	-5.9	11
16	Heidenheim	13	3	1	9	-11	-2.2	10
17	Holstein Kiel	13	1	2	10	-20	-10.1	5
18	Bochum	13	0	2	11	-24	-14.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	7	6	1	0	+12	+7.0	19
2	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+14	+11.6	16
3	Ein Frankfurt	6	4	2	0	+10	+5.0	14
4	Stuttgart	7	4	2	1	+7	+9.5	14
5	Leverkusen	7	4	2	1	+5	+7.4	14
6	Augsburg	7	4	2	1	+4	+5.8	14
7	M'gladbach	7	4	1	2	+4	+1.9	13
8	Freiburg	6	4	1	1	+4	+4.7	13
9	RB Leipzig	6	3	2	1	+3	+1.1	11
10	Union Berlin	6	3	2	1	+2	+0.6	11
11	Hoffenheim	6	3	0	3	-2	-3.0	9
12	Mainz	7	2	2	3	-1	+2.0	8
13	Werder Bremen	6	1	3	2	-5	-2.0	6
14	Wolfsburg	6	1	2	3	-3	-1.1	5
15	St Pauli	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.4	5
16	Heidenheim	6	1	1	4	-6	+1.1	4
17	Holstein Kiel	7	1	0	6	-15	-6.2	3
18	Bochum	6	0	2	4	-10	-5.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	5	2	0	+17	+10.8	17
2	Wolfsburg	6	4	1	1	+9	+0.3	13
3	Ein Frankfurt	7	4	1	2	+5	+0.3	13
4	RB Leipzig	7	4	1	2	+4	-2.0	13
5	Werder Bremen	7	4	1	2	+1	+1.2	13
6	Leverkusen	6	3	3	0	+5	+3.0	12
7	Mainz	5	3	2	0	+7	-1.6	11
8	Freiburg	6	2	1	3	-4	+0.4	7
9	St Pauli	7	2	0	5	-2	-5.5	6
10	Stuttgart	6	1	3	2	-4	-5.0	6
11	Heidenheim	7	2	0	5	-5	-3.3	6
12	M'gladbach	6	1	2	3	-3	-0.1	5
13	Union Berlin	7	1	2	4	-4	-4.8	5
14	Hoffenheim	6	0	3	3	-5	-6.8	3
15	Holstein Kiel	6	0	2	4	-5	-3.9	2
16	Dortmund	6	0	2	4	-8	-3.7	2
17	Augsburg	6	0	2	4	-13	-10.4	2
18	Bochum	7	0	0	7	-14	-8.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.