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Serie A

Referee: D Orsato

Genoa

T T S S T

1–0

Full-time

Verona

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Genoa Verona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 23%

27%

18%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

45%

Both score Ø 45%

45%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,1

0,6

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,71 xG 0,24

49% Possession 51%

16 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 7

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Genoa 15. · Verona 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	11	9	1	1	+21	+14.1	28
2	Juventus	11	8	2	1	+11	+10.7	26
3	Milan	11	7	1	3	+6	+3.7	22
4	Napoli	11	6	3	2	+12	+12.5	21
5	Atalanta	11	6	1	4	+9	+5.8	19
6	Bologna	11	4	6	1	+4	+2.3	18
7	Roma	11	5	2	4	+8	+5.5	17
8	Fiorentina	11	5	2	4	+3	-3.3	17
9	Monza	11	4	4	3	+2	+0.3	16
10	Lazio	11	5	1	5	+0	+1.1	16
11	Frosinone	11	4	3	4	-1	-2.6	15
12	Torino	11	4	3	4	-4	-1.4	15
13	Lecce	11	3	4	4	-3	-7.9	13
14	Sassuolo	12	3	3	6	-5	-7.1	12
15	Genoa	11	3	2	6	-4	-3.6	11
16	Udinese	11	1	7	3	-7	+0.5	10
17	Cagliari	11	2	3	6	-11	-3.2	9
18	Verona	11	2	2	7	-8	-8.6	8
19	Empoli	11	2	1	8	-17	-5.3	7
20	Salernitana	12	0	5	7	-16	-13.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	6	4	1	1	+10	+5.2	13
2	Inter	6	4	1	1	+10	+8.3	13
3	Juventus	5	4	1	0	+6	+7.9	13
4	Bologna	6	4	1	1	+4	+1.8	13
5	Frosinone	6	4	1	1	+3	-0.5	13
6	Atalanta	5	3	1	1	+6	+3.0	10
7	Lazio	5	3	1	1	+3	+3.5	10
8	Lecce	6	3	1	2	-1	-1.1	10
9	Monza	5	2	3	0	+5	+4.3	9
10	Milan	5	3	0	2	+4	+2.9	9
11	Torino	6	2	3	1	-1	+1.6	9
12	Sassuolo	7	2	2	3	-1	+0.8	8
13	Napoli	5	2	1	2	+2	+6.1	7
14	Fiorentina	5	2	1	2	+1	+1.5	7
15	Genoa	5	2	1	2	+0	-1.1	7
16	Cagliari	6	2	1	3	-5	+0.4	7
17	Verona	5	1	1	3	-4	-2.7	4
18	Empoli	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.7	4
19	Udinese	5	0	3	2	-5	+3.0	3
20	Salernitana	6	0	3	3	-9	-4.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	5	5	0	0	+11	+5.8	15
2	Napoli	6	4	2	0	+10	+6.4	14
3	Juventus	6	4	1	1	+5	+2.7	13
4	Milan	6	4	1	1	+2	+0.8	13
5	Fiorentina	6	3	1	2	+2	-4.8	10
6	Atalanta	6	3	0	3	+3	+2.9	9
7	Udinese	6	1	4	1	-2	-2.5	7
8	Monza	6	2	1	3	-3	-4.0	7
9	Lazio	6	2	0	4	-3	-2.4	6
10	Torino	5	2	0	3	-3	-3.0	6
11	Bologna	5	0	5	0	+0	+0.4	5
12	Roma	5	1	1	3	-2	+0.3	4
13	Sassuolo	5	1	1	3	-4	-7.9	4
14	Genoa	6	1	1	4	-4	-2.5	4
15	Verona	6	1	1	4	-4	-5.9	4
16	Lecce	5	0	3	2	-2	-6.8	3
17	Empoli	5	1	0	4	-11	-3.6	3
18	Frosinone	5	0	2	3	-4	-2.1	2
19	Cagliari	5	0	2	3	-6	-3.6	2
20	Salernitana	6	0	2	4	-7	-9.5	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.