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Champions League
Referee: D Makkelie
Bayern Munich
S T T U S
1–0
Full-time
Arsenal
U S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Arsenal
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
4,8
2,0
Scored
3,2
1,3
Conceded
1,7
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 9/9 matches
Win Ø 62%
67%
56%
Points per game
2,2
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
67%
56%
Both score Ø 50%
56%
44%
Average goals
2,9
2,9
Scored
1,9
2,1
Conceded
1,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,9
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,33 xG 0,47
51% Possession 49%
15 Shots 8
3 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
8 Corners 3
1 Offside 3
10 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

9. Apr -24 Arsenal – Bayern Munich 2–2

Match report

Bayern Munich Arsenal
Half-time 0–0
Konrad Laimer 🟨
54′
1–0 J. Kimmich ⚽
Raphaël Guerreiro
63′
67′
🔁 Gabriel Jesus
↦ Jorginho
68′
🔁 L. Trossard
↦ Gabriel Martinelli
Kim Min-Jae 🔁
↦ N. Mazraoui
76′
84′
🟨 Benjamin White
86′
🔁 E. Nketiah
↦ T. Tomiyasu
D. Upamecano 🔁
↦ L. Sané
89′
Joshua Kimmich 🟨
92′
93′
🟨 Gabriel Jesus
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer G
6 J. Kimmich D
4 M. de Ligt D
15 E. Dier D
40 N. Mazraoui D
8 L. Goretzka M
27 K. Laimer M
10 L. Sané M
42 J. Musiala M
22 Raphaël Guerreiro M
9 H. Kane F
Bench (9)
3 Kim Min-Jae
2 D. Upamecano
26 S. Ulreich
13 E. Choupo-Moting
39 M. Tel
18 Daniel Peretz
17 Bryan Zaragoza
25 T. Müller
45 A. Pavlović

Coach: T. Tuchel

Arsenal

4-3-3
22 David Raya G
4 B. White D
2 W. Saliba D
6 Gabriel Magalhães D
18 T. Tomiyasu D
8 M. Ødegaard M
20 Jorginho M
41 D. Rice M
7 B. Saka F
29 K. Havertz F
11 Gabriel Martinelli F
Bench (12)
9 Gabriel Jesus
19 L. Trossard
14 E. Nketiah
25 Mohamed Elneny
10 E. Smith Rowe
1 A. Ramsdale
5 T. Partey
31 K. Hein
24 R. Nelson
21 Fábio Vieira
35 O. Zinchenko
15 J. Kiwior

Coach: Mikel Arteta

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Makkelie · 193 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.