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Championship

Referee: M Donohue

Stoke

T S S T S

0–1

Full-time

Bristol City

T U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Bristol City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

This season — Championship · 43/43 matches

Win Ø 34%

37%

30%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

49%

63%

Both score Ø 63%

53%

72%

Average goals

2,5

3,1

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,1

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

56% Possession 44%

12 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 0

1 Offside 4

16 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 14. · Bristol City 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	42	27	8	7	+61	89
2	Bournemouth	41	21	12	8	+27	75
3	Luton	42	20	11	11	+18	71
4	Sheffield United	41	20	9	12	+18	69
5	Huddersfield	40	19	12	9	+14	69
6	Middlesbrough	42	20	8	14	+16	68
7	Blackburn	43	18	12	13	+13	66
8	Nott'm Forest	38	19	8	11	+24	65
9	Coventry	43	18	11	14	+9	65
10	West Brom	43	17	12	14	+9	63
11	Swansea	42	18	9	15	-1	63
12	Preston	43	16	15	12	-1	63
13	Millwall	42	16	13	13	+4	61
14	Stoke	43	16	11	16	+8	59
15	QPR	43	17	8	18	-1	59
16	Blackpool	41	15	11	15	-1	56
17	Cardiff	42	15	8	19	-10	53
18	Derby	43	13	13	17	-7	52
19	Bristol City	43	13	10	20	-20	49
20	Hull	43	13	8	22	-9	47
21	Reading	43	13	8	22	-27	47
22	Birmingham	43	11	13	19	-20	46
23	Peterboro	42	7	10	25	-47	31
24	Barnsley	41	6	12	23	-29	30
25	Peterborough	41	6	10	25	-48	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	22	13	5	4	+18	44
2	Fulham	21	13	4	4	+28	43
3	Luton	21	12	5	4	+17	41
4	Middlesbrough	21	13	2	6	+13	41
5	Sheffield United	20	12	4	4	+23	40
6	West Brom	21	11	7	3	+15	40
7	Derby	21	11	7	3	+11	40
8	Bournemouth	20	11	6	3	+18	39
9	Nott'm Forest	21	12	3	6	+15	39
10	Millwall	21	11	6	4	+12	39
11	Coventry	22	11	5	6	+13	38
12	Huddersfield	19	11	5	3	+12	38
13	Preston	21	9	9	3	+6	36
14	Blackpool	22	11	3	8	+2	36
15	Swansea	20	10	5	5	+7	35
16	Stoke	21	10	4	7	+9	34
17	QPR	22	9	6	7	+4	33
18	Bristol City	22	7	8	7	-1	29
19	Reading	22	8	4	10	-8	28
20	Cardiff	22	8	3	11	-2	27
21	Birmingham	21	7	6	8	-3	27
22	Barnsley	20	5	7	8	-5	22
23	Peterboro	21	5	7	9	-10	22
24	Peterborough	20	4	7	9	-11	19
25	Hull	21	5	3	13	-11	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	21	14	4	3	+33	46
2	Bournemouth	21	10	6	5	+9	36
3	Huddersfield	21	8	7	6	+2	31
4	Luton	21	8	6	7	+1	30
5	Hull	22	8	5	9	+2	29
6	Sheffield United	21	8	5	8	-5	29
7	Swansea	22	8	4	10	-8	28
8	Middlesbrough	21	7	6	8	+3	27
9	Coventry	21	7	6	8	-4	27
10	Preston	22	7	6	9	-7	27
11	Nott'm Forest	17	7	5	5	+9	26
12	QPR	21	8	2	11	-5	26
13	Cardiff	20	7	5	8	-8	26
14	Stoke	22	6	7	9	-1	25
15	West Brom	22	6	5	11	-6	23
16	Blackburn	21	5	7	9	-5	22
17	Millwall	21	5	7	9	-8	22
18	Blackpool	19	4	8	7	-3	20
19	Bristol City	21	6	2	13	-19	20
20	Birmingham	22	4	7	11	-17	19
21	Reading	21	5	4	12	-19	19
22	Derby	22	2	6	14	-18	12
23	Peterboro	21	2	3	16	-37	9
24	Peterborough	21	2	3	16	-37	9
25	Barnsley	21	1	5	15	-24	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.