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Serie A

Referee: Michael Fabbri

Roma

T S S S U

0–2

Full-time

Fiorentina

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

0,8

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

This season — Serie A · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 52%

60%

43%

Points per game

2,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

37%

50%

Both score Ø 48%

43%

53%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,7

1,4

Conceded

0,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

70% Possession 30%

25 Shots 3

8 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 8

9 Corners 1

1 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 9

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 3. · Fiorentina 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	31	26	3	2	+56	81
2	Napoli	30	23	5	2	+44	74
3	Roma	30	18	6	6	+26	60
4	Inter	30	16	11	3	+29	59
5	Lazio	30	17	6	7	+34	57
6	Milan	30	15	6	9	+7	51
7	Atalanta	30	13	8	9	+13	47
8	Fiorentina	30	13	8	9	+9	47
9	Sampdoria	30	14	5	11	+4	47
10	Torino	30	10	12	8	+7	42
11	Bologna	30	10	5	15	-7	35
12	Genoa	30	9	7	14	-7	34
13	Udinese	30	10	3	17	-8	33
14	Chievo	30	7	8	15	-21	29
15	Cagliari	30	8	5	17	-22	29
16	Sassuolo	30	7	8	15	-30	29
17	Spal	30	5	11	14	-22	26
18	Crotone	30	6	6	18	-28	24
19	Verona	30	6	4	20	-37	22
20	Benevento	31	4	1	26	-47	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	15	13	1	1	+32	40
2	Napoli	15	11	2	2	+21	35
3	Inter	16	10	5	1	+19	35
4	Sampdoria	15	10	2	3	+14	32
5	Roma	15	9	1	5	+10	28
6	Lazio	15	8	3	4	+21	27
7	Milan	14	8	3	3	+3	27
8	Atalanta	15	7	4	4	+9	25
9	Fiorentina	15	7	4	4	+4	25
10	Torino	15	6	5	4	+10	23
11	Chievo	15	5	5	5	-3	20
12	Bologna	16	5	4	7	-1	19
13	Udinese	15	5	2	8	-1	17
14	Crotone	15	4	4	7	-6	16
15	Genoa	15	4	3	8	-5	15
16	Spal	14	3	6	5	-8	15
17	Cagliari	15	4	2	9	-13	14
18	Benevento	16	4	1	11	-15	13
19	Verona	15	4	1	10	-18	13
20	Sassuolo	15	2	6	7	-12	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	13	2	1	+24	41
2	Napoli	15	12	3	0	+23	39
3	Roma	15	9	5	1	+16	32
4	Lazio	15	9	3	3	+13	30
5	Inter	14	6	6	2	+10	24
6	Milan	16	7	3	6	+4	24
7	Fiorentina	15	6	4	5	+5	22
8	Atalanta	15	6	4	5	+4	22
9	Genoa	15	5	4	6	-2	19
10	Torino	15	4	7	4	-3	19
11	Sassuolo	15	5	2	8	-18	17
12	Bologna	14	5	1	8	-6	16
13	Udinese	15	5	1	9	-7	16
14	Cagliari	15	4	3	8	-9	15
15	Sampdoria	15	4	3	8	-10	15
16	Spal	16	2	5	9	-14	11
17	Chievo	15	2	3	10	-18	9
18	Verona	15	2	3	10	-19	9
19	Crotone	15	2	2	11	-22	8
20	Benevento	15	0	0	15	-32	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.