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Primeira Liga

Referee: André Narciso

Sp Braga

U S T S S

1–1

Full-time

Belenenses

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,7

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,8

2,8

Scored

2,5

0,7

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-1,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 33/32 matches

Win Ø 40%

55%

25%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

58%

38%

Both score Ø 48%

55%

41%

Average goals

3,0

2,4

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

65% Possession 35%

32 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 1

11 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

11 Corners 1

1 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Braga 4. · Belenenses 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	33	26	4	3	+54	82
2	Benfica	34	23	6	5	+41	75
3	Sp Lisbon	32	19	5	8	+20	62
4	Sp Braga	33	18	5	10	+22	59
5	Famalicao	34	16	10	8	+6	58
6	Rio Ave	34	16	9	9	+12	57
7	Guimaraes	34	13	11	10	+16	50
8	Gil Vicente	34	12	10	12	-2	46
9	Moreirense	34	10	15	9	+4	45
10	Santa Clara	34	11	10	13	-5	43
11	Boavista	34	11	8	15	-8	41
12	Maritimo	34	9	13	12	-7	40
13	Pacos Ferreira	34	11	5	18	-17	38
14	Portimonense	34	6	14	14	-16	32
15	Tondela	34	7	10	17	-19	31
16	Belenenses	32	8	7	17	-27	31
17	Setubal	32	6	12	14	-18	30
18	Vitoria Setubal	32	6	12	14	-18	30
19	Aves	34	6	2	26	-38	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	14	1	1	+34	43
2	Benfica	17	12	2	3	+25	38
3	Sp Lisbon	16	12	0	4	+12	36
4	Sp Braga	16	10	3	3	+13	33
5	Famalicao	17	8	5	4	+5	29
6	Guimaraes	17	8	4	5	+13	28
7	Gil Vicente	17	7	7	3	+5	28
8	Rio Ave	17	7	5	5	+5	26
9	Moreirense	17	6	7	4	+4	25
10	Maritimo	17	5	8	4	+3	23
11	Boavista	17	6	4	7	+1	22
12	Santa Clara	17	6	4	7	-3	22
13	Portimonense	17	4	8	5	-2	20
14	Pacos Ferreira	17	5	2	10	-9	17
15	Setubal	16	3	7	6	-7	16
16	Vitoria Setubal	16	3	7	6	-7	16
17	Aves	17	5	1	11	-9	16
18	Belenenses	17	4	4	9	-14	16
19	Tondela	17	2	5	10	-14	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	17	12	3	2	+20	39
2	Benfica	17	11	4	2	+16	37
3	Rio Ave	17	9	4	4	+7	31
4	Famalicao	17	8	5	4	+1	29
5	Sp Braga	17	8	2	7	+9	26
6	Sp Lisbon	16	7	5	4	+8	26
7	Guimaraes	17	5	7	5	+3	22
8	Santa Clara	17	5	6	6	-2	21
9	Pacos Ferreira	17	6	3	8	-8	21
10	Moreirense	17	4	8	5	+0	20
11	Tondela	17	5	5	7	-5	20
12	Boavista	17	5	4	8	-9	19
13	Gil Vicente	17	5	3	9	-7	18
14	Maritimo	17	4	5	8	-10	17
15	Belenenses	15	4	3	8	-13	15
16	Setubal	16	3	5	8	-11	14
17	Vitoria Setubal	16	3	5	8	-11	14
18	Portimonense	17	2	6	9	-14	12
19	Aves	17	1	1	15	-29	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.