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La Liga

Referee: M Sesma

Villarreal

S S U T T

5–1

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,3

1,7

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 57%

57%

Points per game

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

57%

49%

Both score Ø 57%

62%

51%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,6

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–1

2,48 xG 1,16

48% Possession 52%

14 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 9

0 Offside 1

3 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Villarreal 3. · Ath Madrid 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	38	31	1	6	+59	+41.2	94
2	Real Madrid	38	27	5	6	+42	+36.7	86
3	Villarreal	37	21	6	10	+22	+10.6	69
4	Ath Madrid	37	21	6	10	+22	+11.3	69
5	Betis	38	15	15	8	+11	+9.3	60
6	Celta	38	14	12	12	+5	+0.5	54
7	Getafe	38	15	6	17	-6	-11.6	51
8	Vallecano	38	12	14	12	-3	+3.7	50
9	Valencia	38	13	10	15	-9	+2.6	49
10	Sociedad	38	11	13	14	-2	-4.1	46
11	Espanol	38	12	10	16	-12	-6.0	46
12	Ath Bilbao	38	13	6	19	-15	+8.5	45
13	Elche	38	10	13	15	-8	-20.7	43
14	Alaves	38	11	10	17	-12	-1.3	43
15	Sevilla	38	12	7	19	-14	-17.9	43
16	Osasuna	38	11	9	18	-6	-3.1	42
17	Mallorca	38	11	9	18	-10	-19.4	42
18	Levante	38	11	9	18	-14	-8.0	42
19	Girona	38	9	14	15	-16	-8.1	41
20	Oviedo	38	6	11	21	-34	-24.1	29

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	19	19	0	0	+47	+26.7	57
2	Real Madrid	19	16	1	2	+29	+24.6	49
3	Ath Madrid	19	15	1	3	+22	+19.6	46
4	Villarreal	18	14	1	3	+25	+10.8	43
5	Betis	19	10	6	3	+15	+9.9	36
6	Elche	19	9	8	2	+11	-2.2	35
7	Mallorca	19	9	6	4	+10	+3.3	33
8	Osasuna	19	9	5	5	+7	+9.6	32
9	Vallecano	19	7	10	2	+9	+10.7	31
10	Valencia	19	8	6	5	+4	+9.0	30
11	Ath Bilbao	19	9	3	7	+1	+12.8	30
12	Sociedad	19	8	5	6	+6	+7.2	29
13	Getafe	19	8	3	8	+2	-2.3	27
14	Alaves	19	7	6	6	+0	+2.5	27
15	Levante	19	7	5	7	-2	+2.0	26
16	Espanol	19	7	5	7	-3	+0.8	26
17	Sevilla	19	7	4	8	-1	-1.7	25
18	Girona	19	6	6	7	-6	-3.9	24
19	Celta	19	6	5	8	+1	+5.5	23
20	Oviedo	19	4	7	8	-9	-11.0	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	19	11	4	4	+13	+12.1	37
2	Barcelona	19	12	1	6	+12	+14.6	37
3	Celta	19	8	7	4	+4	-5.1	31
4	Villarreal	19	7	5	7	-3	-0.2	26
5	Betis	19	5	9	5	-4	-0.5	24
6	Getafe	19	7	3	9	-8	-9.2	24
7	Ath Madrid	18	6	5	7	+0	-8.4	23
8	Espanol	19	5	5	9	-9	-6.8	20
9	Vallecano	19	5	4	10	-12	-7.0	19
10	Valencia	19	5	4	10	-13	-6.4	19
11	Sevilla	19	5	3	11	-13	-16.2	18
12	Sociedad	19	3	8	8	-8	-11.3	17
13	Girona	19	3	8	8	-10	-4.2	17
14	Levante	19	4	4	11	-12	-10.1	16
15	Alaves	19	4	4	11	-12	-3.8	16
16	Ath Bilbao	19	4	3	12	-16	-4.3	15
17	Osasuna	19	2	4	13	-13	-12.7	10
18	Oviedo	19	2	4	13	-25	-13.1	10
19	Mallorca	19	2	3	14	-20	-22.7	9
20	Elche	19	1	5	13	-19	-18.5	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.