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Champions League
Referee: D Siebert
Arsenal
U T S U S
1–0
Full-time
Ath Madrid
U T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
50%
83%
Average goals
2,0
3,5
Scored
1,2
1,8
Conceded
0,8
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 13/15 matches
Win Ø 62%
77%
47%
Points per game
2,5
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
46%
80%
Both score Ø 63%
38%
87%
Average goals
2,6
4,1
Scored
2,2
2,3
Conceded
0,5
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,56 xG 0,99
53% Possession 47%
13 Shots 9
2 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
5 Corners 2
1 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

29. Apr -26 Ath Madrid – Arsenal 1–1 21. Oct -25 Arsenal – Ath Madrid 4–0

Match report

Arsenal Ath Madrid
Kepa Arrizabalaga 🟨
-5′
1–0 B. Saka ⚽
44′
Half-time 1–0
57′
🔁 A. Sorloth
↦ R. Le Normand
57′
🔁 N. Molina
↦ A. Lookman
57′
🔁 J. Cardoso
↦ G. Simeone
N. Madueke 🔁
↦ B. Saka
58′
P. Hincapie 🔁
↦ R. Calafiori
58′
M. Odegaard 🔁
↦ E. Eze
59′
66′
🔁 A. Baena
↦ A. Griezmann
66′
🔁 T. Almada
↦ J. Alvarez
M. Zubimendi 🔁
↦ M. Lewis-Skelly
74′
81′
🟨 Marc Pubill
G. Martinelli 🔁
↦ L. Trossard
83′
95′
🟨 Koke
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Arsenal

4-2-3-1
1 D. Raya G
4 B. White D
2 W. Saliba D
6 Gabriel D
33 R. Calafiori D
41 D. Rice M
49 M. Lewis-Skelly M
7 B. Saka M
10 E. Eze M
19 L. Trossard M
14 V. Gyökeres F
Bench (12)
13 K. Arrizabalaga
35 T. Setford
8 M. Odegaard
9 Gabriel Jesus
29 K. Havertz
20 N. Madueke
11 G. Martinelli
5 P. Hincapie
36 M. Zubimendi
3 C. Mosquera
56 M. Dowman
16 C. Norgaard

Coach: Mikel Arteta

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
18 M. Pubill D
24 R. Le Normand D
17 D. Hancko D
3 M. Ruggeri D
20 G. Simeone M
14 M. Llorente M
6 Koke M
22 A. Lookman M
7 A. Griezmann F
19 J. Alvarez F
Bench (12)
1 J. Musso
9 A. Sorloth
2 J. M. Gimenez
16 N. Molina
21 O. Vargas
32 J. Bonar
4 R. Mendoza
15 C. Lenglet
10 A. Baena
11 T. Almada
5 J. Cardoso
34 J. Diaz

Coach: Diego Simeone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Siebert · 158 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.