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La Liga

Referee: Víctor García

Celta

S T T S T

0–1

Full-time

Ath Madrid

U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

100%

33%

Average goals

4,5

2,0

Scored

2,3

1,7

Conceded

2,2

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

100%

33%

Average goals

4,5

2,2

Scored

2,3

1,7

Conceded

2,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,53 xG 0,62

58% Possession 42%

9 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 3

10 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Celta 9. · Ath Madrid 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	+18	+11.1	21
2	Real Madrid	7	5	2	0	+11	+11.3	17
3	Villarreal	7	4	2	1	+0	+0.6	14
4	Ath Bilbao	7	4	1	2	+4	-0.5	13
5	Ath Madrid	6	3	3	0	+7	+6.0	12
6	Mallorca	7	3	2	2	+1	+0.4	11
7	Osasuna	7	3	2	2	-3	-2.9	11
8	Alaves	7	3	1	3	+1	+2.1	10
9	Celta	6	3	0	3	+1	+1.3	9
10	Vallecano	7	2	3	2	+1	-0.8	9
11	Betis	7	2	3	2	+0	+4.6	9
12	Girona	7	2	2	3	-2	+4.2	8
13	Sevilla	7	2	2	3	-2	+0.7	8
14	Espanol	7	2	1	4	-4	-6.8	7
15	Leganes	7	1	3	3	-4	-4.9	6
16	Sociedad	7	1	2	4	-4	-3.1	5
17	Valencia	7	1	2	4	-5	-6.4	5
18	Valladolid	7	1	2	4	-12	-7.3	5
19	Getafe	7	0	4	3	-3	-1.8	4
20	Las Palmas	7	0	3	4	-5	-7.7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+9	+8.2	12
2	Osasuna	4	3	1	0	+3	+0.9	10
3	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+9	+5.5	9
4	Celta	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.0	9
5	Ath Madrid	3	2	1	0	+6	+5.5	7
6	Alaves	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.7	7
7	Betis	4	2	1	1	+2	+4.2	7
8	Ath Bilbao	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.2	7
9	Espanol	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.7	6
10	Sevilla	4	2	0	2	-1	+1.0	6
11	Valencia	4	1	2	1	+1	-1.7	5
12	Valladolid	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.5	5
13	Mallorca	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.2	5
14	Vallecano	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.6	4
15	Girona	3	1	1	1	+1	+3.7	4
16	Villarreal	3	1	1	1	-3	-1.4	4
17	Getafe	3	0	3	0	+0	+1.7	3
18	Las Palmas	4	0	3	1	-1	-4.8	3
19	Leganes	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.4	3
20	Sociedad	3	0	0	3	-4	-1.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+9	+5.6	12
2	Villarreal	4	3	1	0	+3	+2.0	10
3	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.7	6
4	Mallorca	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.7	6
5	Real Madrid	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.1	5
6	Ath Madrid	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.5	5
7	Vallecano	4	1	2	1	+0	-2.5	5
8	Sociedad	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.4	5
9	Girona	4	1	1	2	-3	+0.6	4
10	Alaves	4	1	0	3	-2	+1.4	3
11	Leganes	4	0	3	1	-2	-4.5	3
12	Sevilla	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.3	2
13	Betis	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.4	2
14	Getafe	4	0	1	3	-3	-3.5	1
15	Espanol	3	0	1	2	-4	-6.1	1
16	Osasuna	3	0	1	2	-6	-3.8	1
17	Celta	3	0	0	3	-4	+0.4	0
18	Las Palmas	3	0	0	3	-4	-2.9	0
19	Valencia	3	0	0	3	-6	-4.8	0
20	Valladolid	4	0	0	4	-13	-7.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.