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Champions League
Referee: Artur Soares Dias
Real Madrid
S T S T S
1–1
Full-time
Man City
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Man City
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,0
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,5
3,2
Scored
2,0
2,5
Conceded
1,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 10/10 matches
Win Ø 70%
80%
60%
Points per game
2,5
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
50%
60%
Both score Ø 45%
50%
40%
Average goals
3,3
3,0
Scored
2,5
2,6
Conceded
0,8
0,4
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+2,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,70 xG 0,55
44% Possession 56%
13 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 6
7 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 3
8 Corners 7
0 Offside 2
11 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Real Madrid Man City
1–0 Vinícius Júnior ⚽
E. Camavinga
36′
Half-time 1–0
Toni Kroos 🟨
48′
67′
⚽ K. De Bruyne 1–1
İ. Gündoğan
71′
🟨 İlkay Gündoğan
Eduardo Camavinga 🟨
79′
Marco Asensio 🔁
↦ Rodrygo
81′
A. Tchouaméni 🔁
↦ T. Kroos
84′
86′
🟨 Bernardo Silva
Nacho 🔁
↦ L. Modrić
87′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Real Madrid

4-3-3
1 T. Courtois G
2 Dani Carvajal D
22 A. Rüdiger D
4 D. Alaba D
12 E. Camavinga D
15 F. Valverde M
8 T. Kroos M
10 L. Modrić M
21 Rodrygo F
9 K. Benzema F
20 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (11)
11 Marco Asensio
18 A. Tchouaméni
6 Nacho
19 Dani Ceballos
16 Odriozola
5 Vallejo
13 A. Lunin
17 Lucas Vázquez
24 M. Díaz
26 Luis López
7 E. Hazard

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Man City

3-2-4-1
31 Ederson G
2 K. Walker D
3 Rúben Dias D
25 M. Akanji D
5 J. Stones M
16 Rodri M
20 Bernardo Silva F
17 K. De Bruyne M
8 İ. Gündoğan M
10 J. Grealish F
9 E. Haaland F
Bench (10)
14 Aymeric Laporte
47 P. Foden
82 R. Lewis
80 C. Palmer
21 Sergio Gómez
18 S. Ortega
33 S. Carson
19 J. Álvarez
4 K. Phillips
26 R. Mahrez

Coach: Pep Guardiola

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Artur Soares Dias · 181 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.