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La Liga

Referee: Guillermo Cuadra

Almeria

T T T S T

3–2

Full-time

Girona

S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Almeria Girona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,5

This season — La Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 22%

22%

Points per game

0,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

56%

Both score Ø 67%

56%

78%

Average goals

2,6

3,0

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

34% Possession 66%

13 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Almeria 18. · Girona 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	10	9	1	0	+17	28
2	Barcelona	9	7	1	1	+17	22
3	Sociedad	10	7	1	2	+4	22
4	Ath Madrid	10	6	2	2	+8	20
5	Betis	10	6	2	2	+7	20
6	Ath Bilbao	10	5	3	2	+11	18
7	Villarreal	9	4	3	2	+9	15
8	Valencia	10	4	3	3	+6	15
9	Osasuna	9	4	1	4	-1	13
10	Vallecano	10	3	3	4	-2	12
11	Valladolid	10	3	2	5	-5	11
12	Sevilla	10	2	4	4	-5	10
13	Celta	10	3	1	6	-9	10
14	Espanol	9	2	3	4	-4	9
15	Mallorca	10	2	3	5	-4	9
16	Getafe	10	2	3	5	-8	9
17	Girona	9	2	2	5	-3	8
18	Almeria	9	2	1	6	-7	7
19	Cadiz	10	1	4	5	-13	7
20	Elche	10	0	3	7	-18	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Betis	5	5	0	0	+8	15
2	Barcelona	4	3	1	0	+8	10
3	Valencia	5	3	1	1	+7	10
4	Real Madrid	4	3	1	0	+6	10
5	Ath Bilbao	6	3	1	2	+4	10
6	Sociedad	5	3	1	1	+0	10
7	Osasuna	5	3	0	2	+1	9
8	Villarreal	3	2	1	0	+6	7
9	Ath Madrid	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	Girona	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Celta	5	2	1	2	+0	7
12	Valladolid	5	2	1	2	+0	7
13	Vallecano	4	2	1	1	+0	7
14	Almeria	4	2	0	2	+1	6
15	Getafe	6	1	2	3	-4	5
16	Mallorca	5	1	1	3	-2	4
17	Espanol	5	1	1	3	-4	4
18	Sevilla	5	0	3	2	-5	3
19	Cadiz	6	0	3	3	-9	3
20	Elche	5	0	2	3	-7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	6	6	0	0	+11	18
2	Ath Madrid	5	4	1	0	+7	13
3	Barcelona	5	4	0	1	+9	12
4	Sociedad	5	4	0	1	+4	12
5	Ath Bilbao	4	2	2	0	+7	8
6	Villarreal	6	2	2	2	+3	8
7	Sevilla	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Espanol	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Valencia	5	1	2	2	-1	5
10	Betis	5	1	2	2	-1	5
11	Vallecano	6	1	2	3	-2	5
12	Mallorca	5	1	2	2	-2	5
13	Osasuna	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Getafe	4	1	1	2	-4	4
15	Cadiz	4	1	1	2	-4	4
16	Valladolid	5	1	1	3	-5	4
17	Celta	5	1	0	4	-9	3
18	Girona	4	0	1	3	-3	1
19	Almeria	5	0	1	4	-8	1
20	Elche	5	0	1	4	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.