Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Almeria
Girona
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Eibar
|
33 | 19 | 9 | 5 | +14 | 66 |
| 2 |
Almeria
|
32 | 19 | 5 | 8 | +23 | 62 |
| 3 |
Valladolid
|
33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | +17 | 61 |
| 4 |
Tenerife
|
33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | +15 | 55 |
| 5 |
Girona
|
32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | +14 | 52 |
| 6 |
Ponferradina
|
33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | +5 | 51 |
| 7 |
Oviedo
|
33 | 11 | 15 | 7 | +9 | 48 |
| 8 |
Cartagena
|
33 | 14 | 4 | 15 | -1 | 46 |
| 9 |
Burgos
|
33 | 13 | 6 | 14 | +4 | 45 |
| 10 |
Huesca
|
33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | +8 | 44 |
| 11 |
Ibiza
|
33 | 10 | 14 | 9 | +0 | 44 |
| 12 |
Las Palmas
|
32 | 11 | 11 | 10 | +0 | 44 |
| 13 |
Zaragoza
|
33 | 9 | 16 | 8 | -5 | 43 |
| 14 |
Lugo
|
33 | 8 | 18 | 7 | +2 | 42 |
| 15 |
Leganes
|
32 | 10 | 12 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
| 16 |
Mirandes
|
33 | 12 | 6 | 15 | -6 | 42 |
| 17 |
Sp Gijon
|
33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | -2 | 39 |
| 18 |
Malaga
|
33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | -20 | 37 |
| 19 |
Sociedad B
|
33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | -12 | 31 |
| 20 |
Fuenlabrada
|
33 | 5 | 14 | 14 | -17 | 29 |
| 21 |
Amorebieta
|
33 | 4 | 16 | 13 | -15 | 28 |
| 22 |
Alcorcon
|
33 | 3 | 9 | 21 | -34 | 18 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Tenerife
Almeria
Almeria
Lugo
Zaragoza
Almeria
Almeria
Fuenlabrada
Almeria
Mirandes
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.