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La Liga
Referee: Alberto Undiano
Villarreal
T U U U T
1–1
Full-time
Ath Bilbao
S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Ath Bilbao
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,5
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,0
1,8
Scored
1,2
1,0
Conceded
1,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,2
This season — La Liga · 19/19 matches
Win Ø 19%
16%
21%
Points per game
0,9
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 48%
53%
42%
Both score Ø 61%
58%
63%
Average goals
2,4
2,4
Scored
1,1
1,1
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

50% Possession 50%
3 Shots 9
1 Shots on target 2
1 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 0
1 Corners 3
3 Offside 1
17 Free kicks against 13
4 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Villarreal 19. · Ath Bilbao 15.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Barcelona 19 13 4 2 +33 43
2 Ath Madrid 20 11 8 1 +17 41
3 Real Madrid 20 11 3 6 +6 36
4 Sevilla 20 9 6 5 +9 33
5 Alaves 20 9 5 6 -1 32
6 Getafe 20 8 7 5 +9 31
7 Betis 20 8 5 7 +0 29
8 Valencia 20 5 11 4 +1 26
9 Sociedad 19 7 4 8 +1 25
10 Girona 20 5 9 6 -3 24
11 Espanol 19 7 3 9 -6 24
12 Levante 19 6 5 8 -5 23
13 Leganes 19 5 7 7 -4 22
14 Valladolid 19 5 7 7 -4 22
15 Ath Bilbao 19 4 10 5 -5 22
16 Eibar 19 5 7 7 -7 22
17 Celta 20 5 6 9 -2 21
18 Vallecano 19 5 4 10 -12 19
19 Villarreal 19 3 8 8 -5 17
20 Huesca 20 2 5 13 -22 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.