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Championship

Referee: J Linington

Millwall

U U S T U

1–1

Full-time

Swansea

T U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,5

This season — Championship · 39/37 matches

Win Ø 36%

33%

38%

Points per game

1,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

38%

46%

Both score Ø 55%

56%

54%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%

16 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

12 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 11. · Swansea 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	39	22	8	9	+27	74
2	West Brom	39	19	14	6	+26	71
3	Nott'm Forest	39	17	13	9	+12	64
4	Fulham	37	18	9	10	+10	63
5	Cardiff	38	15	14	9	+6	59
6	Brentford	36	16	9	11	+28	57
7	Preston	39	16	9	14	+3	57
8	Derby	39	15	12	12	+2	57
9	Swansea	37	14	14	9	+8	56
10	Blackburn	39	15	11	13	+7	56
11	Millwall	39	13	16	10	+3	55
12	Bristol City	39	15	10	14	-5	55
13	Sheffield Weds	39	14	10	15	-2	52
14	QPR	39	14	8	17	-6	50
15	Reading	39	13	10	16	+3	49
16	Birmingham	39	12	13	14	-9	49
17	Wigan	39	12	11	16	-8	47
18	Charlton	39	12	9	18	-8	45
19	Middlesbrough	39	10	14	15	-11	44
20	Stoke	39	12	7	20	-8	43
21	Hull	39	11	9	19	-15	42
22	Huddersfield	39	11	9	19	-17	42
23	Luton	39	11	6	22	-27	39
24	Barnsley	39	9	11	19	-19	38

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Derby	20	11	7	2	+16	40
2	Leeds	19	12	4	3	+16	40
3	Fulham	20	12	2	6	+9	38
4	Preston	20	11	3	6	+9	36
5	Blackburn	20	9	8	3	+10	35
6	Cardiff	18	9	7	2	+11	34
7	Brentford	17	9	5	3	+19	32
8	West Brom	19	8	8	3	+13	32
9	Millwall	19	8	7	4	+6	31
10	Nott'm Forest	19	9	4	6	+3	31
11	Swansea	19	8	5	6	+6	29
12	QPR	20	8	5	7	+3	29
13	Charlton	20	8	5	7	+3	29
14	Stoke	20	8	3	9	+3	27
15	Wigan	19	7	6	6	-2	27
16	Sheffield Weds	19	7	6	6	-5	27
17	Luton	19	7	5	7	+0	26
18	Bristol City	19	7	5	7	-3	26
19	Huddersfield	20	7	5	8	-3	26
20	Middlesbrough	20	6	8	6	-4	26
21	Reading	19	7	3	9	-1	24
22	Birmingham	19	6	6	7	-2	24
23	Barnsley	20	5	8	7	-7	23
24	Hull	20	6	3	11	-7	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	20	11	6	3	+13	39
2	Leeds	20	10	4	6	+11	34
3	Nott'm Forest	20	8	9	3	+9	33
4	Bristol City	20	8	5	7	-2	29
5	Swansea	18	6	9	3	+2	27
6	Brentford	19	7	4	8	+9	25
7	Reading	20	6	7	7	+4	25
8	Sheffield Weds	20	7	4	9	+3	25
9	Fulham	17	6	7	4	+1	25
10	Cardiff	20	6	7	7	-5	25
11	Birmingham	20	6	7	7	-7	25
12	Millwall	20	5	9	6	-3	24
13	Blackburn	19	6	3	10	-3	21
14	Preston	19	5	6	8	-6	21
15	Hull	19	5	6	8	-8	21
16	QPR	19	6	3	10	-9	21
17	Wigan	20	5	5	10	-6	20
18	Middlesbrough	19	4	6	9	-7	18
19	Derby	19	4	5	10	-14	17
20	Stoke	19	4	4	11	-11	16
21	Charlton	19	4	4	11	-11	16
22	Huddersfield	19	4	4	11	-14	16
23	Barnsley	19	4	3	12	-12	15
24	Luton	20	4	1	15	-27	13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.