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Bundesliga

Referee: M Gräfe

M'gladbach

T S S U S

4–2

Full-time

Dortmund

T S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

M'gladbach Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

This season — Bundesliga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 47%

41%

53%

Points per game

1,6

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

59%

65%

Both score Ø 68%

76%

59%

Average goals

3,4

3,2

Scored

1,8

1,9

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

42% Possession 58%

10 Shots 16

7 Shots on target 7

0 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 7

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match M'gladbach 7. · Dortmund 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	12	3	2	+24	39
2	RB Leipzig	17	10	5	2	+15	35
3	Leverkusen	17	9	5	3	+15	32
4	Dortmund	17	9	2	6	+11	29
5	Wolfsburg	17	7	8	2	+7	29
6	Union Berlin	17	7	7	3	+11	28
7	M'gladbach	17	7	7	3	+5	28
8	Ein Frankfurt	17	6	9	2	+4	27
9	Freiburg	17	6	6	5	+3	24
10	Stuttgart	17	5	7	5	+5	22
11	Hoffenheim	17	5	4	8	-5	19
12	Augsburg	17	5	4	8	-9	19
13	Werder Bremen	17	4	6	7	-6	18
14	Hertha	17	4	5	8	-5	17
15	Bielefeld	17	5	2	10	-11	17
16	FC Koln	17	3	6	8	-13	15
17	Mainz	17	1	4	12	-21	7
18	Schalke 04	17	1	4	12	-30	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	9	7	1	1	+12	22
2	Bayern Munich	8	6	2	0	+19	20
3	Wolfsburg	8	5	3	0	+6	18
4	Union Berlin	9	4	4	1	+9	16
5	M'gladbach	9	4	4	1	+5	16
6	Leverkusen	8	4	3	1	+6	15
7	Ein Frankfurt	8	3	5	0	+4	14
8	Freiburg	9	3	4	2	+6	13
9	Dortmund	8	4	1	3	+6	13
10	Bielefeld	9	4	0	5	-2	12
11	Hoffenheim	8	2	2	4	-1	8
12	Werder Bremen	8	2	2	4	-4	8
13	Hertha	8	2	2	4	-5	8
14	Augsburg	9	2	2	5	-7	8
15	Stuttgart	8	0	5	3	-4	5
16	Schalke 04	9	1	2	6	-7	5
17	FC Koln	9	0	3	6	-10	3
18	Mainz	9	0	2	7	-11	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	6	1	2	+5	19
2	Stuttgart	9	5	2	2	+9	17
3	Leverkusen	9	5	2	2	+9	17
4	Dortmund	9	5	1	3	+5	16
5	RB Leipzig	8	3	4	1	+3	13
6	Ein Frankfurt	9	3	4	2	+0	13
7	Union Berlin	8	3	3	2	+2	12
8	M'gladbach	8	3	3	2	+0	12
9	FC Koln	8	3	3	2	-3	12
10	Wolfsburg	9	2	5	2	+1	11
11	Augsburg	8	3	2	3	-2	11
12	Freiburg	8	3	2	3	-3	11
13	Hoffenheim	9	3	2	4	-4	11
14	Werder Bremen	9	2	4	3	-2	10
15	Hertha	9	2	3	4	+0	9
16	Bielefeld	8	1	2	5	-9	5
17	Mainz	8	1	2	5	-10	5
18	Schalke 04	8	0	2	6	-23	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.