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Bundesliga

Referee: F Zwayer

Leverkusen

S T T U T

2–1

Full-time

Dortmund

S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

This season — Bundesliga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 53%

50%

56%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

56%

63%

Both score Ø 60%

63%

56%

Average goals

2,9

3,3

Scored

1,9

2,0

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%

23 Shots 15

13 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 11

6 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 3. · Dortmund 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	11	3	2	+23	36
2	RB Leipzig	16	9	5	2	+14	32
3	Leverkusen	16	8	5	3	+14	29
4	Dortmund	16	9	2	5	+12	29
5	Union Berlin	16	7	7	2	+12	28
6	M'gladbach	17	7	7	3	+5	28
7	Wolfsburg	16	6	8	2	+5	26
8	Ein Frankfurt	16	6	8	2	+4	26
9	Freiburg	16	6	5	5	+3	23
10	Stuttgart	16	5	7	4	+8	22
11	Augsburg	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Werder Bremen	17	4	6	7	-6	18
13	Hertha	16	4	5	7	-2	17
14	Hoffenheim	16	4	4	8	-8	16
15	Bielefeld	16	4	2	10	-14	14
16	FC Koln	16	2	6	8	-14	12
17	Mainz	16	1	4	11	-19	7
18	Schalke 04	16	1	4	11	-29	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	6	2	0	+19	20
2	RB Leipzig	8	6	1	1	+11	19
3	Wolfsburg	8	5	3	0	+6	18
4	Union Berlin	9	4	4	1	+9	16
5	M'gladbach	9	4	4	1	+5	16
6	Ein Frankfurt	8	3	5	0	+4	14
7	Dortmund	8	4	1	3	+6	13
8	Freiburg	8	3	3	2	+6	12
9	Leverkusen	7	3	3	1	+5	12
10	Bielefeld	8	3	0	5	-5	9
11	Hoffenheim	8	2	2	4	-1	8
12	Hertha	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Werder Bremen	8	2	2	4	-4	8
14	Augsburg	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Stuttgart	8	0	5	3	-4	5
16	Schalke 04	8	1	2	5	-6	5
17	FC Koln	9	0	3	6	-10	3
18	Mainz	8	0	2	6	-9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stuttgart	8	5	2	1	+12	17
2	Leverkusen	9	5	2	2	+9	17
3	Dortmund	8	5	1	2	+6	16
4	Bayern Munich	8	5	1	2	+4	16
5	RB Leipzig	8	3	4	1	+3	13
6	Union Berlin	7	3	3	1	+3	12
7	M'gladbach	8	3	3	2	+0	12
8	Ein Frankfurt	8	3	3	2	+0	12
9	Augsburg	8	3	2	3	-2	11
10	Freiburg	8	3	2	3	-3	11
11	Werder Bremen	9	2	4	3	-2	10
12	Hertha	9	2	3	4	+0	9
13	FC Koln	7	2	3	2	-4	9
14	Wolfsburg	8	1	5	2	-1	8
15	Hoffenheim	8	2	2	4	-7	8
16	Bielefeld	8	1	2	5	-9	5
17	Mainz	8	1	2	5	-10	5
18	Schalke 04	8	0	2	6	-23	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.