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Super League

Referee: Luca Cibelli

Basel

T T T S T

4–2

Full-time

Thun

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Basel Thun

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,7

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

1,0

5,0

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

0,5

3,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,07 xG 0,64

47% Possession 53%

11 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 5

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 5

3 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Basel 6. · Thun 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lugano	3	3	0	0	+9	+2.8	9
2	Young Boys	3	2	1	0	+8	+3.8	7
3	St. Gallen	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.6	6
4	Lausanne	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.2	5
5	Sion	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.8	3
6	Basel	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
7	Servette	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.6	3
8	Thun	2	1	0	1	-4	-3.6	3
9	Zurich	3	1	0	2	-5	-2.0	3
10	Grasshoppers	3	0	1	2	-4	-1.4	1
11	Vaduz	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.1	0
12	Luzern	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lugano	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.5	6
2	Sion	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.3	3
3	Young Boys	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
4	St. Gallen	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
5	Zurich	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
6	Servette	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
7	Lausanne	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.5	2
8	Vaduz	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
9	Basel	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.7	0
10	Luzern	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.9	0
11	Grasshoppers	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.3	0
12	Thun	1	0	0	1	-6	-2.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Young Boys	2	1	1	0	+6	+2.3	4
2	Lugano	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.3	3
3	Thun	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.9	3
4	St. Gallen	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
5	Lausanne	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.7	3
6	Basel	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
7	Grasshoppers	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
8	Servette	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
9	Vaduz	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
10	Sion	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
11	Luzern	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.3	0
12	Zurich	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.