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Eredivisie

Referee: J Manschot

Waalwijk

U T T U T

2–0

Full-time

Nijmegen

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Waalwijk Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

0,7

2,2

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 20/19 matches

Win Ø 29%

20%

37%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

60%

79%

Both score Ø 67%

55%

79%

Average goals

2,8

3,7

Scored

0,9

2,0

Conceded

1,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,95 xG 0,93

41% Possession 59%

11 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 10

11 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Waalwijk 16. · Nijmegen 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	20	18	2	0	+54	+42.5	56
2	Feyenoord	20	14	4	2	+36	+39.7	46
3	Twente	20	12	5	3	+18	+11.3	41
4	AZ Alkmaar	20	10	5	5	+19	+11.8	35
5	Ajax	20	10	5	5	+11	+9.0	35
6	Go Ahead Eagles	19	8	5	6	+6	-6.0	29
7	Nijmegen	19	7	7	5	+6	-9.3	28
8	Zwolle	20	7	5	8	-2	-6.1	26
9	Sparta Rotterdam	20	7	5	8	-2	-3.8	26
10	For Sittard	20	6	6	8	-12	+1.1	24
11	Utrecht	20	5	8	7	-7	-7.8	23
12	Almere City	20	6	5	9	-16	-9.8	23
13	Heerenveen	20	6	4	10	-9	-4.7	22
14	Excelsior	20	4	9	7	-5	-8.8	21
15	Heracles	20	5	4	11	-22	-15.9	19
16	Waalwijk	20	4	3	13	-20	-9.0	15
17	Volendam	20	3	3	14	-26	-16.0	12
18	Vitesse	20	3	3	14	-29	-18.3	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	10	0	0	+26	+25.8	30
2	Twente	10	8	1	1	+10	+8.4	25
3	Feyenoord	10	6	3	1	+18	+18.6	21
4	AZ Alkmaar	11	6	2	3	+13	+12.1	20
5	Ajax	10	6	2	2	+12	+8.1	20
6	For Sittard	10	5	3	2	+4	+8.5	18
7	Go Ahead Eagles	10	5	2	3	+10	+4.0	17
8	Nijmegen	10	5	2	3	+8	+3.9	17
9	Heerenveen	9	4	2	3	+5	+7.1	14
10	Excelsior	10	2	6	2	+0	-0.3	12
11	Almere City	10	3	3	4	-6	-3.2	12
12	Utrecht	10	2	5	3	-5	-3.3	11
13	Zwolle	10	3	2	5	-5	+1.3	11
14	Heracles	10	3	2	5	-11	-8.2	11
15	Sparta Rotterdam	10	2	3	5	-7	+0.1	9
16	Waalwijk	10	2	2	6	-8	-5.1	8
17	Volendam	9	2	1	6	-10	-0.8	7
18	Vitesse	10	1	3	6	-9	-6.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	10	8	2	0	+28	+16.7	26
2	Feyenoord	10	8	1	1	+18	+21.1	25
3	Sparta Rotterdam	10	5	2	3	+5	-3.8	17
4	Twente	10	4	4	2	+8	+2.9	16
5	AZ Alkmaar	9	4	3	2	+6	-0.3	15
6	Zwolle	10	4	3	3	+3	-7.4	15
7	Ajax	10	4	3	3	-1	+0.8	15
8	Utrecht	10	3	3	4	-2	-4.5	12
9	Go Ahead Eagles	9	3	3	3	-4	-10.0	12
10	Nijmegen	9	2	5	2	-2	-13.2	11
11	Almere City	10	3	2	5	-10	-6.6	11
12	Excelsior	10	2	3	5	-5	-8.5	9
13	Heracles	10	2	2	6	-11	-7.7	8
14	Heerenveen	11	2	2	7	-14	-11.9	8
15	Waalwijk	10	2	1	7	-12	-3.9	7
16	For Sittard	10	1	3	6	-16	-7.3	6
17	Vitesse	10	2	0	8	-20	-11.5	6
18	Volendam	11	1	2	8	-16	-15.2	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.