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La Liga

Referee: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos

Alaves

S U S T T

0–1

Full-time

Real Madrid

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alaves Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,8

Scored

0,8

2,8

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 50%

24%

76%

Points per game

0,9

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

29%

59%

Both score Ø 47%

41%

53%

Average goals

2,2

2,9

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

1,4

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,59 xG 0,59

40% Possession 60%

8 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Alaves 15. · Real Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	18	14	3	1	+21	+8.8	45
2	Real Madrid	17	13	3	1	+27	+14.4	42
3	Barcelona	18	11	5	2	+13	+22.6	38
4	Ath Madrid	17	11	2	4	+16	+10.0	35
5	Ath Bilbao	18	10	5	3	+15	+15.1	35
6	Sociedad	18	8	7	3	+11	+1.4	31
7	Betis	18	6	10	2	+2	-0.3	28
8	Getafe	18	6	8	4	+1	-2.9	26
9	Las Palmas	18	7	4	7	+0	-9.1	25
10	Valencia	18	6	5	7	-3	-2.6	23
11	Vallecano	18	4	8	6	-8	-5.2	20
12	Osasuna	17	5	4	8	-7	-5.4	19
13	Villarreal	18	5	4	9	-9	-5.5	19
14	Sevilla	17	3	7	7	-1	-6.4	16
15	Alaves	17	4	4	9	-9	+1.3	16
16	Mallorca	17	2	9	6	-6	-2.3	15
17	Cadiz	18	2	9	7	-10	-10.3	15
18	Celta	18	2	7	9	-10	-2.2	13
19	Granada	18	1	5	12	-20	-13.1	8
20	Almeria	18	0	5	13	-23	-8.4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	9	8	1	0	+11	+10.1	25
2	Barcelona	10	8	0	2	+10	+12.2	24
3	Ath Bilbao	10	7	2	1	+14	+14.0	23
4	Real Madrid	8	7	1	0	+17	+12.3	22
5	Girona	9	7	1	1	+11	+4.1	22
6	Betis	9	5	4	0	+8	+6.1	19
7	Sociedad	9	5	3	1	+7	+0.3	18
8	Getafe	8	5	3	0	+5	+1.6	18
9	Las Palmas	8	4	3	1	+4	-0.9	15
10	Valencia	8	4	2	2	+5	+1.8	14
11	Alaves	8	4	1	3	+0	+5.0	13
12	Cadiz	9	2	5	2	-1	+2.1	11
13	Sevilla	9	2	4	3	+0	-1.9	10
14	Villarreal	10	3	1	6	-4	+0.9	10
15	Mallorca	8	1	6	1	+0	-1.1	9
16	Osasuna	9	2	3	4	-4	-0.7	9
17	Vallecano	9	1	5	3	-7	-3.5	8
18	Celta	9	1	4	4	-6	+3.7	7
19	Granada	9	1	4	4	-7	-4.6	7
20	Almeria	9	0	4	5	-8	-0.1	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	9	7	2	0	+10	+4.8	23
2	Real Madrid	9	6	2	1	+10	+2.1	20
3	Barcelona	8	3	5	0	+3	+10.3	14
4	Sociedad	9	3	4	2	+4	+1.1	13
5	Ath Bilbao	8	3	3	2	+1	+1.1	12
6	Vallecano	9	3	3	3	-1	-1.7	12
7	Ath Madrid	8	3	1	4	+5	-0.1	10
8	Osasuna	8	3	1	4	-3	-4.7	10
9	Las Palmas	10	3	1	6	-4	-8.2	10
10	Villarreal	8	2	3	3	-5	-6.4	9
11	Betis	9	1	6	2	-6	-6.4	9
12	Valencia	10	2	3	5	-8	-4.4	9
13	Getafe	10	1	5	4	-4	-4.5	8
14	Sevilla	8	1	3	4	-1	-4.5	6
15	Celta	9	1	3	5	-4	-5.9	6
16	Mallorca	9	1	3	5	-6	-1.2	6
17	Cadiz	9	0	4	5	-9	-12.4	4
18	Alaves	9	0	3	6	-9	-3.8	3
19	Granada	9	0	1	8	-13	-8.5	1
20	Almeria	9	0	1	8	-15	-8.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.