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Champions League
Referee: D Rumšas
Atalanta
S U U U T
5–0
Full-time
Sturm Graz
S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Sturm Graz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,5
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,5
3,5
Scored
2,2
2,7
Conceded
1,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,8
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,8
2,2
Scored
2,2
0,7
Conceded
0,7
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,5
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

5,34 xG 0,79
61% Possession 39%
25 Shots 5
9 Shots on target 1
5 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
12 Corners 1
3 Offside 0
12 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

9. Nov -23 Atalanta – Sturm Graz 1–0 26. Oct -23 Sturm Graz – Atalanta 2–2

Match report

Atalanta Sturm Graz
1–0 M. Retegui ⚽
D. Zappacosta
12′
Lazar Samardžić 🟨
36′
Half-time 1–0
A. Lookman 🔁
↦ M. Retegui
46′
J. Cuadrado 🔁
↦ M. Palestra
46′
46′
🔁 S. Jatta
↦ A. Camara
Charles De Ketelaere ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
50′
2–0 M. Pašalić ⚽
J. Cuadrado
58′
3–0 C. De Ketelaere ⚽
I. Hien
63′
Éderson 🔁
↦ M. de Roon
64′
M. Brescianini 🔁
↦ L. Samardžić
64′
69′
🔁 L. Zvonarek
↦ M. Yalcouyé
70′
🔁 T. Horvat
↦ W. Bøving
B. Djimsiti 🔁
↦ S. Kolašinac
71′
78′
🔁 S. Hierländer
↦ T. Chukwuani
90′
🔁 L. Grgić
↦ O. Kiteishvili
4–0 A. Lookman ⚽
C. De Ketelaere
90′
5–0 M. Brescianini ⚽
94′
Full-time 5–0

Line-ups

Atalanta

3-4-1-2
29 M. Carnesecchi G
2 R. Tolói D
4 I. Hien D
23 S. Kolašinac D
27 M. Palestra M
8 M. Pašalić M
15 M. de Roon M
77 D. Zappacosta M
24 L. Samardžić F
17 C. De Ketelaere F
32 M. Retegui F
Bench (11)
11 A. Lookman
7 J. Cuadrado
13 Éderson
44 M. Brescianini
19 B. Djimsiti
31 F. Rossi
48 V. Vlahović
28 Rui Patrício
16 R. Bellanova
42 G. Scalvini
22 M. Ruggeri

Coach: G. Gasperini

Sturm Graz

4-4-1-1
1 K. Scherpen G
23 A. Malić D
47 E. Aiwu D
5 G. Wüthrich D
24 D. Lavalée D
8 M. Yalcouyé M
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič M
21 T. Chukwuani M
36 A. Camara M
10 O. Kiteishvili F
15 W. Bøving F
Bench (12)
20 S. Jatta
14 L. Zvonarek
19 T. Horvat
25 S. Hierländer
38 L. Grgić
40 M. Bignetti
35 N. Geyrhofer
17 E. Karić
32 K. Schopp
49 P. Kiedl
53 D. Khudyakov
43 J. Hödl

Coach: J. Säumel

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Rumšas · 26 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,38 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.