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Ligue 1

Referee: R Buquet

Paris SG

T S S S S

3–0

Full-time

Montpellier

U U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 10/9 matches

Win Ø 47%

60%

33%

Points per game

2,1

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

70%

67%

Both score Ø 52%

60%

44%

Average goals

3,2

2,9

Scored

2,3

1,7

Conceded

0,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,16 xG 0,47

71% Possession 29%

21 Shots 7

10 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 2. · Montpellier 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nice	10	6	4	0	+7	+7.0	22
2	Paris SG	10	6	3	1	+14	+12.6	21
3	Monaco	10	6	2	2	+9	+6.4	20
4	Lille	10	5	3	2	+4	+4.2	18
5	Reims	10	5	2	3	+4	+3.9	17
6	Brest	10	4	3	3	+0	+1.1	15
7	Nantes	10	4	2	4	-3	-7.4	14
8	Montpellier	9	3	3	3	+4	+3.7	12
9	Rennes	10	2	6	2	+3	+4.7	12
10	Marseille	9	3	3	3	+0	+7.4	12
11	Lens	10	3	3	4	-1	+3.5	12
12	Toulouse	10	2	5	3	-2	-9.7	11
13	Le Havre	10	2	5	3	-2	-5.1	11
14	Strasbourg	10	3	2	5	-6	-3.2	11
15	Lorient	10	2	4	4	-5	-7.1	10
16	Metz	10	2	3	5	-8	-8.2	9
17	Clermont	9	1	2	6	-7	-6.3	5
18	Lyon	9	0	3	6	-11	-7.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	5	4	0	1	+7	+2.8	12
2	Lille	5	4	0	1	+5	+3.7	12
3	Paris SG	5	3	1	1	+8	+4.8	10
4	Marseille	4	3	1	0	+6	+5.1	10
5	Rennes	6	2	3	1	+4	+5.7	9
6	Nice	5	2	3	0	+3	+4.1	9
7	Reims	5	3	0	2	+2	+4.3	9
8	Lens	5	2	2	1	+4	+6.4	8
9	Nantes	5	2	2	1	+3	-2.7	8
10	Lorient	5	2	2	1	+1	-3.6	8
11	Brest	5	2	2	1	+1	+5.0	8
12	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	+1	+2.0	7
13	Le Havre	5	2	1	2	+1	+1.5	7
14	Toulouse	4	1	3	0	+3	-1.9	6
15	Montpellier	4	1	2	1	+1	+2.6	5
16	Metz	5	0	3	2	-2	-1.4	3
17	Lyon	5	0	2	3	-7	-3.1	2
18	Clermont	5	0	1	4	-5	-4.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nice	5	4	1	0	+4	+2.8	13
2	Paris SG	5	3	2	0	+6	+7.8	11
3	Monaco	5	2	2	1	+2	+3.6	8
4	Reims	5	2	2	1	+2	-0.4	8
5	Montpellier	5	2	1	2	+3	+1.2	7
6	Brest	5	2	1	2	-1	-3.9	7
7	Lille	5	1	3	1	-1	+0.5	6
8	Metz	5	2	0	3	-6	-6.8	6
9	Nantes	5	2	0	3	-6	-4.7	6
10	Toulouse	6	1	2	3	-5	-7.8	5
11	Clermont	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.8	4
12	Le Havre	5	0	4	1	-3	-6.6	4
13	Lens	5	1	1	3	-5	-2.9	4
14	Strasbourg	5	1	1	3	-7	-5.2	4
15	Rennes	4	0	3	1	-1	-1.0	3
16	Lorient	5	0	2	3	-6	-3.5	2
17	Marseille	5	0	2	3	-6	+2.3	2
18	Lyon	4	0	1	3	-4	-4.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.