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La Liga

Referee: Mario Melero Lopez

Las Palmas

S S T S S

2–1

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Las Palmas Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,8

Scored

1,5

2,5

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 11/10 matches

Win Ø 58%

36%

80%

Points per game

1,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

27%

80%

Both score Ø 43%

36%

50%

Average goals

1,6

3,4

Scored

0,7

2,5

Conceded

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,41 xG 1,24

53% Possession 47%

9 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Las Palmas 10. · Ath Madrid 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	11	9	1	1	+15	+9.0	28
2	Girona	11	9	1	1	+12	+4.9	28
3	Ath Madrid	10	8	1	1	+16	+8.7	25
4	Barcelona	11	7	3	1	+11	+13.8	24
5	Sociedad	11	5	4	2	+6	-0.1	19
6	Ath Bilbao	11	5	3	3	+6	+6.2	18
7	Betis	11	4	5	2	-1	-2.1	17
8	Vallecano	11	4	5	2	-1	+0.2	17
9	Valencia	11	4	3	4	+1	+0.6	15
10	Las Palmas	11	4	2	5	-2	-2.2	14
11	Osasuna	11	4	1	6	-4	-3.9	13
12	Villarreal	11	3	3	5	-3	-3.8	12
13	Getafe	11	2	6	3	-3	-4.8	12
14	Sevilla	10	2	4	4	+1	-2.9	10
15	Cadiz	11	2	4	5	-6	-6.6	10
16	Mallorca	11	1	6	4	-4	-2.6	9
17	Alaves	11	2	3	6	-7	-0.5	9
18	Celta	11	1	3	7	-9	-2.2	6
19	Granada	11	1	3	7	-11	-9.2	6
20	Almeria	11	0	3	8	-17	-2.3	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	6	5	0	1	+9	+6.7	15
2	Girona	6	5	0	1	+7	+2.6	15
3	Ath Madrid	5	5	0	0	+7	+5.7	15
4	Sociedad	6	4	2	0	+7	+0.5	14
5	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+8	+6.8	12
6	Ath Bilbao	6	3	2	1	+6	+5.7	11
7	Betis	5	3	2	0	+5	+3.4	11
8	Valencia	5	3	0	2	+4	+3.7	9
9	Cadiz	6	2	3	1	+2	+2.8	9
10	Getafe	5	2	3	0	+2	+1.0	9
11	Sevilla	6	2	2	2	+3	+0.0	8
12	Las Palmas	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.1	8
13	Alaves	5	2	1	2	-2	+2.0	7
14	Vallecano	5	1	3	1	-5	-1.5	6
15	Granada	6	1	2	3	-4	-4.1	5
16	Mallorca	5	0	4	1	-1	-2.2	4
17	Villarreal	6	1	1	4	-3	-2.5	4
18	Osasuna	5	1	1	3	-3	+0.1	4
19	Almeria	6	0	2	4	-6	+1.6	2
20	Celta	6	0	2	4	-7	-0.6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	7	5	1	1	+7	+2.1	16
2	Girona	5	4	1	0	+5	+2.2	13
3	Vallecano	6	3	2	1	+4	+1.7	11
4	Ath Madrid	5	3	1	1	+9	+3.0	10
5	Barcelona	5	2	3	0	+2	+7.0	9
6	Osasuna	6	3	0	3	-1	-4.0	9
7	Villarreal	5	2	2	1	+0	-1.3	8
8	Ath Bilbao	5	2	1	2	+0	+0.5	7
9	Valencia	6	1	3	2	-3	-3.0	6
10	Las Palmas	6	2	0	4	-3	-2.1	6
11	Betis	6	1	3	2	-6	-5.5	6
12	Sociedad	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.6	5
13	Mallorca	6	1	2	3	-3	-0.4	5
14	Celta	5	1	1	3	-2	-1.6	4
15	Getafe	6	0	3	3	-5	-5.8	3
16	Sevilla	4	0	2	2	-2	-2.9	2
17	Alaves	6	0	2	4	-5	-2.5	2
18	Granada	5	0	1	4	-7	-5.1	1
19	Cadiz	5	0	1	4	-8	-9.4	1
20	Almeria	5	0	1	4	-11	-3.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.