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Allsvenskan

Referee: F Klitte

Djurgarden

S S S T S

1–0

Full-time

Varnamo

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Djurgarden Varnamo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

2,5

1,7

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Allsvenskan · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 54%

69%

38%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

46%

54%

Both score Ø 39%

31%

46%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

2,1

1,3

Conceded

0,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,24 xG 0,83

43% Possession 57%

12 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 6

2 Offside 2

23 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Djurgarden 3. · Varnamo 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Malmo FF	15	11	2	2	+28	+12.8	35
2	Mjallby	15	9	2	4	+9	+1.0	29
3	Djurgarden	13	9	1	3	+15	+0.3	28
4	Hacken	14	7	2	5	+3	-2.4	23
5	Hammarby	13	7	1	5	+6	+1.7	22
6	GAIS	14	7	1	6	-3	-2.5	22
7	Elfsborg	14	6	1	7	+4	+2.6	19
8	Sirius	14	5	3	6	+0	+3.5	18
9	Halmstad	13	6	0	7	-6	-1.9	18
10	Varnamo	13	5	2	6	-2	-4.9	17
11	AIK	13	5	2	6	-5	+0.1	17
12	Brommapojkarna	13	3	6	4	-5	+2.1	15
13	Goteborg	13	4	2	7	-8	-4.1	14
14	Kalmar	13	4	1	8	-10	-5.7	13
15	Norrkoping	13	3	2	8	-19	-5.6	11
16	Vasteras SK	13	2	2	9	-7	+3.0	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Malmo FF	7	7	0	0	+19	+5.5	21
2	Mjallby	9	6	2	1	+8	+0.7	20
3	Elfsborg	7	5	1	1	+13	+2.4	16
4	GAIS	7	5	1	1	+4	+1.0	16
5	AIK	7	5	0	2	+9	+2.1	15
6	Hammarby	6	5	0	1	+9	+1.2	15
7	Hacken	7	4	1	2	+5	-1.7	13
8	Djurgarden	7	4	1	2	+3	-2.6	13
9	Halmstad	6	4	0	2	+5	+2.0	12
10	Sirius	7	3	2	2	+5	+3.5	11
11	Goteborg	6	2	1	3	-5	-3.6	7
12	Brommapojkarna	6	1	3	2	-7	-0.4	6
13	Norrkoping	6	2	0	4	-8	-3.2	6
14	Kalmar	6	1	1	4	-4	-2.0	4
15	Vasteras SK	7	1	1	5	-6	+1.9	4
16	Varnamo	7	1	1	5	-8	-2.5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Djurgarden	6	5	0	1	+12	+2.8	15
2	Malmo FF	8	4	2	2	+9	+7.3	14
3	Varnamo	6	4	1	1	+6	-2.4	13
4	Hacken	7	3	1	3	-2	-0.7	10
5	Brommapojkarna	7	2	3	2	+2	+2.4	9
6	Mjallby	6	3	0	3	+1	+0.4	9
7	Kalmar	7	3	0	4	-6	-3.7	9
8	Goteborg	7	2	1	4	-3	-0.5	7
9	Hammarby	7	2	1	4	-3	+0.5	7
10	Sirius	7	2	1	4	-5	-0.0	7
11	GAIS	7	2	0	5	-7	-3.5	6
12	Halmstad	7	2	0	5	-11	-3.9	6
13	Norrkoping	7	1	2	4	-11	-2.4	5
14	Vasteras SK	6	1	1	4	-1	+1.1	4
15	Elfsborg	7	1	0	6	-9	+0.2	3
16	AIK	6	0	2	4	-14	-2.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.