Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Lugo
Sp Gijon
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Espanol
|
20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | +20 | 42 |
| 2 |
Mallorca
|
20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | +19 | 42 |
| 3 |
Almeria
|
20 | 13 | 2 | 5 | +13 | 41 |
| 4 |
Vallecano
|
20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | +7 | 34 |
| 5 |
Leganes
|
20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | +5 | 34 |
| 6 |
Sp Gijon
|
19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | +5 | 32 |
| 7 |
Ponferradina
|
20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 |
Girona
|
20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | -1 | 29 |
| 9 |
Mirandes
|
20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | +2 | 27 |
| 10 |
Fuenlabrada
|
20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | +0 | 27 |
| 11 | Logrones | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 27 |
| 12 |
Malaga
|
20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | -7 | 27 |
| 13 |
Oviedo
|
20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | +3 | 26 |
| 14 |
Lugo
|
19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | +0 | 26 |
| 15 |
Las Palmas
|
20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | -4 | 26 |
| 16 |
Tenerife
|
20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 17 |
Cartagena
|
20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 20 |
| 18 |
Alcorcon
|
20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 20 |
| 19 |
Sabadell
|
20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 19 |
| 20 |
Castellon
|
20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -8 | 19 |
| 21 |
Zaragoza
|
20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -9 | 15 |
| 22 |
Albacete
|
20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -14 | 15 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Zaragoza
Lugo
Lugo
Ponferradina
Mirandes
Lugo
Lugo
Las Palmas
Malaga
Lugo
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.