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Serie B

Referee: Luca Massimi

Mantova

T S S S T

0–1

Full-time

Reggiana

S T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mantova Reggiana

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

50%

57%

Both score Ø 57%

50%

64%

Average goals

2,5

2,6

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,12 xG 0,52

76% Possession 24%

18 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 3

11 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Mantova 15. · Reggiana 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monza	14	9	3	2	+11	+5.5	30
2	Frosinone	14	8	4	2	+13	+4.7	28
3	Palermo	15	7	5	3	+13	+0.2	26
4	Modena	15	7	5	3	+11	+3.1	26
5	Cesena	14	8	2	4	+6	+0.9	26
6	Venezia	14	7	4	3	+13	+5.0	25
7	Catanzaro	15	5	7	3	+3	-1.2	22
8	Empoli	15	5	5	5	+2	+3.2	20
9	Juve Stabia	14	4	7	3	-1	-2.0	19
10	Avellino	14	5	4	5	-8	-1.8	19
11	Reggiana	14	4	5	5	-1	+1.1	17
12	Padova	14	4	5	5	-3	-2.2	17
13	Carrarese	15	3	7	5	-4	-5.8	16
14	Virtus Entella	14	3	6	5	-6	-1.7	15
15	Mantova	14	4	2	8	-9	-1.0	14
16	Bari	14	3	5	6	-11	-4.8	14
17	Sudtirol	14	2	7	5	-4	-2.5	13
18	Sampdoria	15	3	4	8	-7	+1.1	13
19	Spezia	14	2	5	7	-7	+1.3	11
20	Pescara	14	1	6	7	-11	-2.9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	7	6	0	1	+13	+3.8	18
2	Monza	7	6	0	1	+6	+0.5	18
3	Modena	8	5	2	1	+9	+1.7	17
4	Palermo	8	4	3	1	+10	+2.8	15
5	Empoli	9	3	5	1	+6	+2.8	14
6	Virtus Entella	7	3	4	0	+4	+1.1	13
7	Juve Stabia	7	3	4	0	+4	-0.9	13
8	Catanzaro	8	3	4	1	+2	+0.2	13
9	Reggiana	7	3	3	1	+4	-0.4	12
10	Frosinone	6	3	2	1	+7	+1.8	11
11	Cesena	6	3	2	1	+4	+1.4	11
12	Bari	6	3	2	1	+2	-2.8	11
13	Sampdoria	8	3	2	3	+1	+2.5	11
14	Mantova	7	3	1	3	-3	+1.9	10
15	Avellino	6	3	1	2	-3	-0.4	10
16	Carrarese	7	2	3	2	+1	-1.5	9
17	Pescara	8	1	4	3	-1	-2.9	7
18	Sudtirol	7	2	1	4	-1	-0.9	7
19	Padova	6	1	3	2	-2	-1.3	6
20	Spezia	8	1	3	4	-5	+1.9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	8	5	2	1	+6	+2.9	17
2	Cesena	8	5	0	3	+2	-0.5	15
3	Monza	7	3	3	1	+5	+5.0	12
4	Palermo	7	3	2	2	+3	-2.6	11
5	Padova	8	3	2	3	-1	-1.0	11
6	Modena	7	2	3	2	+2	+1.4	9
7	Catanzaro	7	2	3	2	+1	-1.4	9
8	Avellino	8	2	3	3	-5	-1.5	9
9	Venezia	7	1	4	2	+0	+1.3	7
10	Carrarese	8	1	4	3	-5	-4.3	7
11	Sudtirol	7	0	6	1	-3	-1.6	6
12	Empoli	6	2	0	4	-4	+0.4	6
13	Juve Stabia	7	1	3	3	-5	-1.0	6
14	Spezia	6	1	2	3	-2	-0.6	5
15	Reggiana	7	1	2	4	-5	+1.5	5
16	Mantova	7	1	1	5	-6	-2.9	4
17	Bari	8	0	3	5	-13	-2.0	3
18	Sampdoria	7	0	2	5	-8	-1.3	2
19	Pescara	6	0	2	4	-10	–	2
20	Virtus Entella	7	0	2	5	-10	-2.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.