Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Vicenza
Brescia
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–2
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Empoli
|
35 | 17 | 16 | 2 | +30 | 67 |
| 2 |
Lecce
|
35 | 16 | 13 | 6 | +23 | 61 |
| 3 |
Salernitana
|
35 | 16 | 12 | 7 | +6 | 60 |
| 4 |
Monza
|
35 | 15 | 13 | 7 | +16 | 58 |
| 5 |
Venezia
|
35 | 15 | 11 | 9 | +14 | 56 |
| 6 |
Cittadella
|
35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | +14 | 53 |
| 7 |
Spal
|
35 | 12 | 14 | 9 | +1 | 50 |
| 8 |
Chievo
|
35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | +8 | 49 |
| 9 |
Reggina
|
35 | 12 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 48 |
| 10 |
Brescia
|
35 | 12 | 11 | 12 | +2 | 47 |
| 11 |
Cremonese
|
35 | 11 | 11 | 13 | +0 | 44 |
| 12 |
Vicenza
|
35 | 10 | 14 | 11 | -3 | 44 |
| 13 |
Pisa
|
35 | 10 | 14 | 11 | -5 | 44 |
| 14 |
Frosinone
|
35 | 10 | 13 | 12 | -9 | 43 |
| 15 | Pordenone | 35 | 9 | 14 | 12 | +0 | 41 |
| 16 |
Ascoli
|
35 | 10 | 10 | 15 | -10 | 40 |
| 17 |
Cosenza
|
35 | 6 | 17 | 12 | -9 | 35 |
| 18 |
Reggiana
|
35 | 9 | 7 | 19 | -23 | 34 |
| 19 |
Pescara
|
35 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -26 | 29 |
| 20 |
Virtus Entella
|
35 | 4 | 11 | 20 | -30 | 23 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Virtus Entella
Vicenza
Vicenza
Lecce
Reggina
Vicenza
Ascoli
Vicenza
Vicenza
Cittadella
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.