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Championship

Referee: O Langford

Bristol City

T S T T U

1–0

Full-time

Stoke

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

2,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,8

This season — Championship · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 43%

32%

53%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

58%

42%

Both score Ø 58%

68%

47%

Average goals

2,8

2,4

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

35% Possession 65%

8 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Bristol City 18. · Stoke 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	19	14	2	3	+34	44
2	Bournemouth	19	12	5	2	+20	41
3	West Brom	20	10	6	4	+12	36
4	Coventry	20	10	5	5	+7	35
5	Stoke	19	10	4	5	+7	34
6	Blackburn	19	8	6	5	+6	30
7	QPR	19	8	5	6	+5	29
8	Huddersfield	17	8	4	5	+4	28
9	Luton	19	7	6	6	+5	27
10	Swansea	19	7	6	6	+1	27
11	Blackpool	19	7	6	6	-1	27
12	Preston	20	7	6	7	-3	27
13	Middlesbrough	20	7	5	8	+1	26
14	Millwall	18	6	8	4	+0	26
15	Reading	20	8	2	10	-5	26
16	Sheffield United	19	7	4	8	+1	25
17	Birmingham	20	6	5	9	-6	23
18	Bristol City	19	6	5	8	-7	23
19	Derby	19	4	9	6	-3	21
20	Nott'm Forest	17	5	5	7	-1	20
21	Cardiff	19	5	4	10	-13	19
22	Hull	19	4	3	12	-10	15
23	Peterborough	18	4	3	11	-17	15
24	Peterboro	19	4	3	12	-21	15
25	Barnsley	18	2	5	11	-16	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Coventry	11	8	2	1	+14	26
2	Stoke	10	7	2	1	+9	23
3	Fulham	9	7	1	1	+17	22
4	West Brom	9	6	3	0	+11	21
5	Bournemouth	9	6	2	1	+12	20
6	Blackburn	10	6	2	2	+7	20
7	Swansea	10	5	4	1	+9	19
8	Huddersfield	8	6	1	1	+6	19
9	QPR	9	5	3	1	+7	18
10	Preston	10	5	3	2	+3	18
11	Luton	9	5	2	2	+8	17
12	Middlesbrough	11	5	2	4	+4	17
13	Reading	11	5	2	4	+2	17
14	Millwall	9	4	3	2	+1	15
15	Sheffield United	10	4	2	4	+6	14
16	Derby	9	3	5	1	+2	14
17	Blackpool	10	4	2	4	-2	14
18	Peterboro	9	3	3	3	+2	12
19	Peterborough	9	3	3	3	+2	12
20	Birmingham	9	3	2	4	-3	11
21	Bristol City	9	1	5	3	-3	8
22	Nott'm Forest	9	2	2	5	-5	8
23	Hull	10	2	2	6	-5	8
24	Barnsley	9	2	2	5	-5	8
25	Cardiff	9	2	1	6	-7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	10	7	1	2	+17	22
2	Bournemouth	10	6	3	1	+8	21
3	West Brom	11	4	3	4	+1	15
4	Bristol City	10	5	0	5	-4	15
5	Blackpool	9	3	4	2	+1	13
6	Nott'm Forest	8	3	3	2	+4	12
7	Birmingham	11	3	3	5	-3	12
8	Cardiff	10	3	3	4	-6	12
9	Millwall	9	2	5	2	-1	11
10	QPR	10	3	2	5	-2	11
11	Stoke	9	3	2	4	-2	11
12	Sheffield United	9	3	2	4	-5	11
13	Blackburn	9	2	4	3	-1	10
14	Luton	10	2	4	4	-3	10
15	Huddersfield	9	2	3	4	-2	9
16	Middlesbrough	9	2	3	4	-3	9
17	Preston	10	2	3	5	-6	9
18	Reading	9	3	0	6	-7	9
19	Coventry	9	2	3	4	-7	9
20	Swansea	9	2	2	5	-8	8
21	Derby	10	1	4	5	-5	7
22	Hull	9	2	1	6	-5	7
23	Barnsley	9	0	3	6	-11	3
24	Peterborough	9	1	0	8	-19	3
25	Peterboro	10	1	0	9	-23	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.