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Championship

Referee: A Davies

Cardiff

T S U T T

1–0

Full-time

Derby

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,2

This season — Championship · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 31%

31%

Points per game

1,1

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

58%

42%

Both score Ø 53%

53%

Average goals

2,8

2,1

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

37% Possession 63%

14 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 6

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 20. · Derby 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	35	23	7	5	+55	76
2	Bournemouth	32	18	8	6	+24	62
3	Blackburn	35	17	9	9	+16	60
4	Huddersfield	34	16	11	7	+12	59
5	Sheffield United	34	17	7	10	+16	58
6	Coventry	35	16	9	10	+11	57
7	Luton	33	16	8	9	+12	56
8	QPR	35	16	8	11	+9	56
9	Middlesbrough	34	16	7	11	+10	55
10	Preston	37	13	14	10	+1	53
11	West Brom	36	14	10	12	+7	52
12	Nott'm Forest	32	14	8	10	+12	50
13	Millwall	34	13	10	11	+1	49
14	Blackpool	35	13	9	13	+1	48
15	Stoke	34	13	8	13	+6	47
16	Derby	36	11	12	13	-4	45
17	Swansea	33	12	8	13	-6	44
18	Bristol City	36	12	7	17	-17	43
19	Hull	37	11	7	19	-7	40
20	Cardiff	36	11	7	18	-10	40
21	Reading	36	11	6	19	-23	39
22	Birmingham	37	9	11	17	-18	38
23	Barnsley	34	5	9	20	-24	24
24	Peterboro	33	5	6	22	-42	21
25	Peterborough	33	5	6	22	-42	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	19	12	4	3	+28	40
2	Blackburn	18	12	3	3	+17	39
3	Middlesbrough	18	12	2	4	+14	38
4	Luton	17	10	4	3	+13	34
5	Coventry	18	10	4	4	+13	34
6	West Brom	17	9	6	2	+14	33
7	QPR	18	9	6	3	+11	33
8	Derby	18	9	6	3	+8	33
9	Huddersfield	16	9	5	2	+9	32
10	Millwall	17	9	5	3	+8	32
11	Blackpool	19	10	2	7	+4	32
12	Sheffield United	16	9	3	4	+17	30
13	Bournemouth	15	9	3	3	+15	30
14	Swansea	16	8	4	4	+8	28
15	Stoke	18	8	4	6	+7	28
16	Nott'm Forest	17	8	3	6	+5	27
17	Preston	18	6	9	3	+3	27
18	Bristol City	18	7	5	6	+0	26
19	Birmingham	18	6	5	7	-2	23
20	Reading	18	6	4	8	-8	22
21	Cardiff	18	6	2	10	+0	20
22	Hull	18	5	3	10	-6	18
23	Peterboro	16	4	5	7	-6	17
24	Peterborough	16	4	5	7	-6	17
25	Barnsley	16	4	4	8	-7	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	16	11	3	2	+27	36
2	Bournemouth	17	9	5	3	+9	32
3	Sheffield United	18	8	4	6	-1	28
4	Huddersfield	18	7	6	5	+3	27
5	Preston	19	7	5	7	-2	26
6	Nott'm Forest	15	6	5	4	+7	23
7	QPR	17	7	2	8	-2	23
8	Coventry	17	6	5	6	-2	23
9	Luton	16	6	4	6	-1	22
10	Hull	19	6	4	9	-1	22
11	Blackburn	17	5	6	6	-1	21
12	Cardiff	18	5	5	8	-10	20
13	Stoke	16	5	4	7	-1	19
14	West Brom	19	5	4	10	-7	19
15	Middlesbrough	16	4	5	7	-4	17
16	Millwall	17	4	5	8	-7	17
17	Reading	18	5	2	11	-15	17
18	Bristol City	18	5	2	11	-17	17
19	Blackpool	16	3	7	6	-3	16
20	Swansea	17	4	4	9	-14	16
21	Birmingham	19	3	6	10	-16	15
22	Derby	18	2	6	10	-12	12
23	Barnsley	18	1	5	12	-17	8
24	Peterboro	17	1	1	15	-36	4
25	Peterborough	17	1	1	15	-36	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.