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Championship

Referee: J Smith

Middlesbrough

T S S U S

2–0

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

1,7

2,0

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

0,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,3

This season — Championship · 24/22 matches

Win Ø 42%

42%

41%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

25%

55%

Both score Ø 51%

42%

59%

Average goals

2,1

2,5

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

53% Possession 47%

12 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 8

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 7. · Nott'm Forest 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	24	14	6	4	+33	48
2	Blackburn	24	13	6	5	+18	45
3	Bournemouth	24	12	8	4	+17	44
4	West Brom	24	12	8	4	+14	44
5	Stoke	23	11	5	7	+7	38
6	Coventry	23	10	7	6	+6	37
7	Middlesbrough	24	10	6	8	+4	36
8	QPR	22	10	5	7	+5	35
9	Sheffield United	22	10	4	8	+5	34
10	Nott'm Forest	22	9	6	7	+7	33
11	Huddersfield	22	9	6	7	+3	33
12	Blackpool	24	9	6	9	-2	33
13	Luton	22	8	7	7	+7	31
14	Preston	23	8	7	8	-3	31
15	Millwall	23	7	9	7	-1	30
16	Swansea	23	8	6	9	-2	30
17	Reading	23	9	3	11	-5	30
18	Bristol City	24	8	6	10	-8	30
19	Birmingham	24	7	6	11	-11	27
20	Derby	23	5	10	8	-4	25
21	Hull	24	6	5	13	-9	23
22	Cardiff	23	6	5	12	-14	23
23	Peterboro	23	5	4	14	-24	19
24	Peterborough	23	5	4	14	-24	19
25	Barnsley	24	2	9	13	-19	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	13	9	2	2	+16	29
2	Coventry	12	8	2	2	+13	26
3	West Brom	11	7	4	0	+12	25
4	Fulham	12	7	3	2	+16	24
5	Stoke	12	7	3	2	+8	24
6	Middlesbrough	13	7	2	4	+6	23
7	Preston	12	6	4	2	+4	22
8	Bournemouth	11	6	3	2	+10	21
9	QPR	11	6	3	2	+6	21
10	Huddersfield	10	6	2	2	+5	20
11	Blackpool	13	6	2	5	-1	20
12	Swansea	12	5	4	3	+5	19
13	Millwall	11	5	4	2	+3	19
14	Luton	11	5	3	3	+7	18
15	Reading	12	5	3	4	+2	18
16	Sheffield United	11	5	2	4	+8	17
17	Derby	11	4	5	2	+2	17
18	Nott'm Forest	12	5	2	5	+0	17
19	Peterboro	11	4	4	3	+3	16
20	Peterborough	11	4	4	3	+3	16
21	Birmingham	11	4	3	4	-2	15
22	Bristol City	12	3	5	4	-2	14
23	Hull	12	3	3	6	-4	12
24	Barnsley	12	2	4	6	-7	10
25	Cardiff	11	2	1	8	-9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	12	7	3	2	+17	24
2	Bournemouth	13	6	5	2	+7	23
3	West Brom	13	5	4	4	+2	19
4	Sheffield United	11	5	2	4	-3	17
5	Nott'm Forest	10	4	4	2	+7	16
6	Blackburn	11	4	4	3	+2	16
7	Cardiff	12	4	4	4	-5	16
8	Bristol City	12	5	1	6	-6	16
9	QPR	11	4	2	5	-1	14
10	Stoke	11	4	2	5	-1	14
11	Luton	11	3	4	4	+0	13
12	Blackpool	11	3	4	4	-1	13
13	Huddersfield	12	3	4	5	-2	13
14	Middlesbrough	11	3	4	4	-2	13
15	Reading	11	4	0	7	-7	12
16	Birmingham	13	3	3	7	-9	12
17	Millwall	12	2	5	5	-4	11
18	Hull	12	3	2	7	-5	11
19	Swansea	11	3	2	6	-7	11
20	Coventry	11	2	5	4	-7	11
21	Preston	11	2	3	6	-7	9
22	Derby	12	1	5	6	-6	8
23	Barnsley	12	0	5	7	-12	5
24	Peterboro	12	1	0	11	-27	3
25	Peterborough	12	1	0	11	-27	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.