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Championship

Referee: A Woolmer

Nott'm Forest

T T T U T

0–2

Full-time

Middlesbrough

S T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

This season — Championship · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

58% Possession 42%

15 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 7

3 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 25. · Middlesbrough 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	8	5	3	0	+8	18
2	Bournemouth	7	4	3	0	+7	15
3	Fulham	6	4	1	1	+9	13
4	Huddersfield	7	4	1	2	+4	13
5	Stoke	6	4	1	1	+2	13
6	QPR	7	3	3	1	+5	12
7	Cardiff	7	3	3	1	+4	12
8	Blackburn	7	3	3	1	+3	12
9	Coventry	6	4	0	2	+2	12
10	Birmingham	6	3	2	1	+6	11
11	Luton	7	3	2	2	+1	11
12	Preston	8	3	2	3	-1	11
13	Reading	8	3	1	4	-2	10
14	Sheffield United	8	2	3	3	+2	9
15	Bristol City	6	2	2	2	+0	8
16	Derby	8	1	4	3	-3	7
17	Millwall	6	1	3	2	-2	6
18	Middlesbrough	6	1	3	2	-2	6
19	Barnsley	6	1	3	2	-3	6
20	Swansea	6	1	2	3	-4	5
21	Hull	7	1	2	4	-5	5
22	Blackpool	7	1	2	4	-6	5
23	Peterboro	7	1	1	5	-10	4
24	Peterborough	7	1	1	5	-10	4
25	Nott'm Forest	6	0	1	5	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reading	5	3	1	1	+4	10
2	Coventry	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Stoke	3	3	0	0	+3	9
4	Preston	4	3	0	1	+1	9
5	West Brom	4	2	2	0	+5	8
6	Bournemouth	4	2	2	0	+4	8
7	Sheffield United	5	2	1	2	+6	7
8	Fulham	3	2	1	0	+5	7
9	Blackburn	4	2	1	1	+2	7
10	Luton	4	2	1	1	+1	7
11	Huddersfield	3	2	0	1	+1	6
12	QPR	3	1	2	0	+2	5
13	Cardiff	3	1	1	1	+1	4
14	Middlesbrough	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Millwall	3	1	1	1	+0	4
16	Peterboro	3	1	1	1	+0	4
17	Peterborough	3	1	1	1	+0	4
18	Barnsley	3	1	1	1	+0	4
19	Birmingham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
20	Derby	3	0	3	0	+0	3
21	Blackpool	4	1	0	3	-5	3
22	Bristol City	3	0	2	1	-1	2
23	Swansea	3	0	2	1	-2	2
24	Hull	3	0	1	2	-4	1
25	Nott'm Forest	3	0	0	3	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	4	3	1	0	+3	10
2	Cardiff	4	2	2	0	+3	8
3	Birmingham	3	2	1	0	+6	7
4	QPR	4	2	1	1	+3	7
5	Huddersfield	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	Bournemouth	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Fulham	3	2	0	1	+4	6
8	Bristol City	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Blackburn	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Luton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Hull	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Stoke	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Derby	5	1	1	3	-3	4
14	Swansea	3	1	0	2	-2	3
15	Coventry	3	1	0	2	-2	3
16	Blackpool	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Preston	4	0	2	2	-2	2
18	Millwall	3	0	2	1	-2	2
19	Middlesbrough	3	0	2	1	-2	2
20	Barnsley	3	0	2	1	-3	2
21	Sheffield United	3	0	2	1	-4	2
22	Nott'm Forest	3	0	1	2	-2	1
23	Reading	3	0	0	3	-6	0
24	Peterboro	4	0	0	4	-10	0
25	Peterborough	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.