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Championship

Referee: A Woolmer

Nott'm Forest

S U S T U

1–1

Full-time

Middlesbrough

U U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,7

This season — Championship · 19/20 matches

Win Ø 34%

47%

20%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

42%

35%

Both score Ø 47%

53%

40%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%

9 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 20

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 5. · Middlesbrough 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	20	13	6	1	+21	45
2	Leeds	20	13	4	3	+20	43
3	Bristol City	20	9	8	3	+5	35
4	Fulham	19	10	4	5	+11	34
5	Nott'm Forest	19	9	6	4	+10	33
6	Sheffield Weds	20	9	5	6	+9	32
7	Preston	20	9	4	7	+6	31
8	Cardiff	19	8	6	5	+3	30
9	Swansea	19	8	6	5	+3	30
10	Blackburn	20	9	3	8	+0	30
11	Hull	20	8	5	7	+5	29
12	Birmingham	20	8	4	8	-4	28
13	QPR	20	8	4	8	-7	28
14	Brentford	19	8	3	8	+11	27
15	Millwall	20	6	9	5	-2	27
16	Derby	20	6	7	7	-6	25
17	Charlton	20	6	5	9	-1	23
18	Reading	19	6	3	10	-2	21
19	Middlesbrough	20	4	8	8	-10	20
20	Luton	20	6	2	12	-14	20
21	Huddersfield	20	4	6	10	-11	18
22	Wigan	20	4	4	12	-15	16
23	Stoke	20	4	2	14	-14	14
24	Barnsley	20	2	6	12	-18	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	10	7	2	1	+14	23
2	West Brom	10	6	4	0	+13	22
3	Cardiff	9	7	1	1	+9	22
4	Blackburn	11	6	3	2	+5	21
5	Leeds	9	6	2	1	+9	20
6	Fulham	11	6	2	3	+8	20
7	Derby	10	5	4	1	+6	19
8	Millwall	10	5	4	1	+5	19
9	Sheffield Weds	10	5	4	1	+5	19
10	Hull	11	5	2	4	+4	17
11	Birmingham	9	5	2	2	+4	17
12	Bristol City	9	4	4	1	+5	16
13	Middlesbrough	11	4	4	3	-1	16
14	Brentford	9	4	3	2	+10	15
15	QPR	11	4	3	4	-3	15
16	Charlton	10	4	2	4	+2	14
17	Luton	10	4	2	4	+0	14
18	Nott'm Forest	8	4	1	3	+3	13
19	Swansea	9	4	1	4	+2	13
20	Wigan	9	4	1	4	-3	13
21	Reading	10	4	0	6	-2	12
22	Huddersfield	11	2	4	5	-4	10
23	Barnsley	10	2	4	4	-5	10
24	Stoke	10	2	1	7	-7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	11	7	2	2	+11	23
2	West Brom	10	7	2	1	+8	23
3	Nott'm Forest	11	5	5	1	+7	20
4	Bristol City	11	5	4	2	+0	19
5	Swansea	10	4	5	1	+1	17
6	Fulham	8	4	2	2	+3	14
7	Sheffield Weds	10	4	1	5	+4	13
8	QPR	9	4	1	4	-4	13
9	Hull	9	3	3	3	+1	12
10	Brentford	10	4	0	6	+1	12
11	Birmingham	11	3	2	6	-8	11
12	Reading	9	2	3	4	+0	9
13	Charlton	10	2	3	5	-3	9
14	Blackburn	9	3	0	6	-5	9
15	Cardiff	10	1	5	4	-6	8
16	Huddersfield	9	2	2	5	-7	8
17	Millwall	10	1	5	4	-7	8
18	Preston	10	2	2	6	-8	8
19	Stoke	10	2	1	7	-7	7
20	Derby	10	1	3	6	-12	6
21	Luton	10	2	0	8	-14	6
22	Middlesbrough	9	0	4	5	-9	4
23	Wigan	11	0	3	8	-12	3
24	Barnsley	10	0	2	8	-13	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.