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Championship
Referee: D England
Middlesbrough
T U T T T
2–2
Full-time
Nott'm Forest
S T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Nott'm Forest
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,3
1,8
Scored
0,8
1,0
Conceded
1,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,2
This season — Championship · 35/35 matches
Win Ø 35%
23%
46%
Points per game
1,1
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 37%
34%
40%
Both score Ø 49%
46%
51%
Average goals
2,3
2,3
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
1,3
0,9
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

55% Possession 45%
14 Shots 16
4 Shots on target 2
5 Blocked shots 6
0 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 11
1 Offside 0
13 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Middlesbrough 22. · Nott'm Forest 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 West Brom 36 19 12 5 +27 69
2 Leeds 36 20 8 8 +24 68
3 Fulham 34 18 8 8 +15 62
4 Nott'm Forest 35 16 11 8 +13 59
5 Preston 36 16 8 12 +7 56
6 Bristol City 36 15 9 12 -2 54
7 Blackburn 36 14 11 11 +10 53
8 Swansea 34 13 13 8 +6 52
9 Millwall 36 12 15 9 +1 51
10 Cardiff 35 12 14 9 +0 50
11 Brentford 33 13 9 11 +20 48
12 Sheffield Weds 36 13 9 14 +2 48
13 Derby 36 12 12 12 -3 48
14 QPR 36 13 8 15 -6 47
15 Birmingham 36 12 11 13 -7 47
16 Reading 36 12 9 15 +2 45
17 Huddersfield 36 11 9 16 -11 42
18 Hull 36 11 8 17 -10 41
19 Wigan 36 10 10 16 -12 40
20 Charlton 36 10 9 17 -9 39
21 Stoke 36 11 6 19 -10 39
22 Middlesbrough 35 8 13 14 -11 37
23 Barnsley 36 8 10 18 -18 34
24 Luton 36 10 4 22 -28 34

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Middlesbrough Nott'm Forest
29′
R. Yates 0–1
S. Ameobi
1–1 R. Gestede
H. Moukoudi
40′
2–1 L. Wing
H. Coulson
44′
Half-time 2–1
56′
🔁 A. Diakhaby
↦ Alfa Semedo
69′
🔁 João Carvalho
↦ S. Ameobi
Ryan Shotton 🟨
75′
78′
🔁 J. Bostock
↦ R. Yates
G. Saville 🔁
↦ L. Wing
81′
86′
L. Grabban 2–2
D. Spence 🔁
↦ M. Tavernier
87′
90′
🟨 João Carvalho
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Middlesbrough

4-2-3-1
42 A. Pears G
5 R. Shotton D
18 H. Moukoudi D
33 H. Coulson M
16 J. Howson D
8 A. Clayton M
21 M. Johnson D
17 P. McNair M
7 M. Tavernier M
26 L. Wing M
14 R. Gestede F
Bench (7)
22 G. Saville
29 D. Spence
1 Tomás
35 T. O'Neill
20 L. Nmecha
25 N. Wood-Gordon
15 R. Morrison

Coach: J. Woodgate

Nott'm Forest

4-1-4-1
30 B. Samba G
3 Tobias Figueiredo D
2 Yuri Ribeiro D
4 J. Worrall D
8 B. Watson M
19 S. Ameobi M
17 Alfa Semedo M
11 M. Cash D
22 R. Yates M
7 L. Grabban F
23 J. Lolley M
Bench (7)
14 A. Diakhaby
10 João Carvalho
13 J. Bostock
16 C. Jenkinson
34 T. Walker
20 M. Dawson
49 A. Murić

Coach: S. Lamouchi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,59
U ✓
3,17
B
2,80
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,20
U2,5
1,66
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

D England · 172 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.