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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Southampton

S S U S S

2–0

Full-time

Newcastle

U S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

4,2

3,2

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 50%

57%

43%

Points per game

1,9

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

43%

57%

Both score Ø 57%

43%

71%

Average goals

3,7

3,0

Scored

2,0

1,4

Conceded

1,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

60% Possession 40%

15 Shots 4

8 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 5. · Newcastle 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	7	5	1	1	+2	16
2	Leicester	7	5	0	2	+8	15
3	Tottenham	7	4	2	1	+9	14
4	Everton	7	4	1	2	+4	13
5	Southampton	7	4	1	2	+2	13
6	Wolves	7	4	1	2	+0	13
7	Chelsea	7	3	3	1	+7	12
8	Aston Villa	6	4	0	2	+6	12
9	Arsenal	7	4	0	3	+2	12
10	Man City	6	3	2	1	+1	11
11	Newcastle	7	3	2	2	-1	11
12	Leeds	7	3	1	3	+0	10
13	Crystal Palace	7	3	1	3	-3	10
14	West Ham	7	2	2	3	+3	8
15	Man United	6	2	1	3	-4	7
16	Brighton	8	1	3	4	-3	6
17	Fulham	7	1	1	5	-7	4
18	West Brom	7	0	3	4	-10	3
19	Burnley	7	0	2	5	-9	2
20	Sheffield United	7	0	1	6	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+5	12
2	Everton	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Wolves	4	2	1	1	+1	7
4	Aston Villa	4	2	0	2	+2	6
5	Southampton	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Newcastle	4	2	0	2	-3	6
8	Tottenham	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+2	4
10	West Ham	3	1	1	1	+2	4
11	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Leeds	4	1	1	2	-3	4
13	Leicester	3	1	0	2	-2	3
14	Man City	2	1	0	1	-2	3
15	Fulham	4	1	0	3	-5	3
16	Brighton	4	0	2	2	-3	2
17	West Brom	3	0	2	1	-3	2
18	Sheffield United	4	0	1	3	-4	1
19	Man United	4	0	1	3	-8	1
20	Burnley	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Tottenham	3	3	0	0	+9	9
3	Chelsea	4	2	2	0	+5	8
4	Man City	4	2	2	0	+3	8
5	Southampton	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Man United	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+4	6
8	Leeds	3	2	0	1	+3	6
9	Arsenal	4	2	0	2	+1	6
10	Everton	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Wolves	3	2	0	1	-1	6
12	Crystal Palace	4	2	0	2	-3	6
13	Newcastle	3	1	2	0	+2	5
14	West Ham	4	1	1	2	+1	4
15	Brighton	4	1	1	2	+0	4
16	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-3	4
17	Burnley	4	0	2	2	-4	2
18	Fulham	3	0	1	2	-2	1
19	West Brom	4	0	1	3	-7	1
20	Sheffield United	3	0	0	3	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.