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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fábio Veríssimo

Rio Ave

U U T U U

0–2

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,0

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 49%

20%

77%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

27%

37%

Both score Ø 37%

33%

40%

Average goals

1,9

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,1

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

50% Possession 50%

5 Shots 17

1 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 9

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 17

4 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Rio Ave 15. · Sp Lisbon 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	30	23	7	0	+39	76
2	Porto	30	21	7	2	+34	70
3	Benfica	30	20	6	4	+37	66
4	Sp Braga	31	18	5	8	+19	59
5	Pacos Ferreira	31	14	7	10	+0	49
6	Guimaraes	30	12	5	13	-4	41
7	Santa Clara	30	10	7	13	+2	37
8	Moreirense	30	8	12	10	-9	36
9	Gil Vicente	31	10	5	16	-10	35
10	Tondela	30	10	5	15	-17	35
11	Portimonense	30	9	7	14	-4	34
12	Belenenses	30	7	13	10	-7	34
13	Maritimo	31	10	3	18	-16	33
14	Famalicao	30	7	10	13	-10	31
15	Rio Ave	30	6	13	11	-10	31
16	Boavista	30	6	11	13	-11	29
17	Farense	30	6	9	15	-10	27
18	Nacional	30	6	6	18	-23	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	11	4	0	+19	37
2	Porto	15	11	3	1	+17	36
3	Benfica	15	11	2	2	+15	35
4	Sp Braga	16	10	3	3	+11	33
5	Pacos Ferreira	15	10	2	3	+6	32
6	Tondela	15	8	2	5	+0	26
7	Portimonense	15	6	4	5	+4	22
8	Guimaraes	15	7	1	7	-3	22
9	Santa Clara	15	5	5	5	+5	20
10	Belenenses	15	5	5	5	-2	20
11	Rio Ave	15	4	6	5	-1	18
12	Moreirense	15	3	9	3	-2	18
13	Maritimo	16	5	2	9	-11	17
14	Boavista	15	4	3	8	-6	15
15	Gil Vicente	15	4	3	8	-6	15
16	Nacional	15	4	3	8	-8	15
17	Farense	15	3	5	7	-2	14
18	Famalicao	15	2	7	6	-9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	12	3	0	+20	39
2	Porto	15	10	4	1	+17	34
3	Benfica	15	9	4	2	+22	31
4	Sp Braga	15	8	2	5	+8	26
5	Gil Vicente	16	6	2	8	-4	20
6	Guimaraes	15	5	4	6	-1	19
7	Famalicao	15	5	3	7	-1	18
8	Moreirense	15	5	3	7	-7	18
9	Santa Clara	15	5	2	8	-3	17
10	Pacos Ferreira	16	4	5	7	-6	17
11	Maritimo	15	5	1	9	-5	16
12	Boavista	15	2	8	5	-5	14
13	Belenenses	15	2	8	5	-5	14
14	Farense	15	3	4	8	-8	13
15	Rio Ave	15	2	7	6	-9	13
16	Portimonense	15	3	3	9	-8	12
17	Nacional	15	2	3	10	-15	9
18	Tondela	15	2	3	10	-17	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.